MOLT nearly.trade

molt.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch molt.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 35 % (726 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 23.62 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: molttoken.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 13:17:45 UTC, 19.9 min after the launch: AFz29ZuhfVj48…ehmoe.
Outside buyers' net result: -23.62 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.82 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-23 12:57:51 UTC · block 221240850 · history: launch only
Transaction	6KJUfPRJStGGx…VQzLU
Creator	molttoken.near explorer
Pool	molt.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	23.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-02 12:41 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-02 12:41 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.44x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	13 of 35 · 37.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 22 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	19.9 min	19.9 min	19.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	25	34	34	34	35
Buyers spent	352.61 NEAR	616.41 NEAR	616.41 NEAR	616.41 NEAR	617.41 NEAR
Buyers net result	+110.01 NEAR	-14.97 NEAR	-22.13 NEAR	-23.62 NEAR	-23.90 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+18.17 NEAR	+3.35 NEAR	+0.82 NEAR	+0.82 NEAR	+0.82 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.77x	2.18x	2.18x	2.18x	2.18x
Holders	26	11	7	6	5
Top 10 holders' share	66.7%	100.0%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.2% · holds	2.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	22.3% · 22 of 22 hold	2.2% · 5 of 22 hold	0.3% · 3 of 22 hold
Other early buyers	2.0% · 3 of 3 hold	2.9% · 2 of 8 hold	2.9% · 2 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	24.3% · 25 wallets	5.1% · 30 wallets	3.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	73.6%	92.7%	96.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	66.7%	100.0%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.7% · 3 merged	100.0% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.53 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	19.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	11.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
5	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	20.21 NEAR	9.5 min after buying · transaction	+11.79 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs
6	decep.near	21 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	50.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.97 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 31 of those launches pair bought within 18.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	lowfrog6012.near	23 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	11.0 min after buying · transaction	+7.59 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
8	flatbat5958.near	23 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+14.46 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
9	finequiche1009.near	23 s · transaction	28.00 NEAR	9.4 min after buying · transaction	+13.64 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
10	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	28 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	11.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 4.5 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	32 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	11.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 29.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs
12	stillurial1675.near	38 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+3.98 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.9 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
13	longquiche338.near	38 s · transaction	39.00 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+4.19 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.9 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
14	dryoil1584.near	39 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	10.7 min after buying · transaction	+6.81 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.5 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
15	sickuser1627.near	45 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	10.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.82 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of roughzone8076.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of longquiche338.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.9 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
16	roughzone8076.near	46 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	10.7 min after buying · transaction	-2.18 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 18 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of sickuser1627.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.8 s of longquiche338.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.5 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
17	roundapp1514.near	55 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	10.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.17 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of pinkzest7538.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.8 s of roughzone8076.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.4 s of sickuser1627.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
18	sparezest902.near	56 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	10.5 min after buying · transaction	-2.04 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of pinkzest7538.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of roundapp1514.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.4 s of roughzone8076.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
19	pinkzest7538.near	56 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	10.5 min after buying · transaction	-2.85 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 10.4 s of roughzone8076.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of sickuser1627.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
20	phbo.near	60 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-2.07 NEAR	pair bought within 57.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of molttoken.near

None known.