MORNING nearly.trade

morning.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch morning.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 41 % (799 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 2.12 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearmorning.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-29 12:17:50 UTC, 48.2 min after the launch: AyiSj8gARySL8…vatze.
Outside buyers' net result: -2.12 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.02 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-29 11:29:39 UTC · block 222118800 · history: launch only
Transaction	C83oehCwRtbSF…nFs2c
Creator	nearmorning.near explorer
Pool	morning.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	2.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-30 11:10 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-30 11:10 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.90x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	8 of 13 · 61.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	48.2 min	48.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	11	11	11	13
Buyers spent	53.51 NEAR	53.51 NEAR	53.51 NEAR	53.51 NEAR	55.88 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.56 NEAR	-1.23 NEAR	-1.31 NEAR	-2.12 NEAR	-2.15 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+0.10 NEAR	+0.02 NEAR	+0.0093 NEAR	-0.02 NEAR	-0.02 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.09x	1.09x	1.09x	1.09x	1.09x
Holders	7	4	3	0	1
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	—	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.2% · holds	0.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.3% · 6 of 11 hold	2.2% · 3 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	4.3% · 11 wallets	2.2% · 11 wallets	0% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	95.5%	97.6%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	—

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
2	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
3	onlyrekt.near	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	24.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.0004 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
4	pussy.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	28 s after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
6	dolph.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
7	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
8	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
9	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	22.71 NEAR	48.1 min after buying · transaction	-1.37 NEAR	pair bought within 1.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	15 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 11.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	sneaky_jambolog….near	30 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.01 NEAR	pair bought within 26.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearmorning.near

None known.