It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2094 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 5; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +7.95 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.17 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 98% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-02 13:12:40 UTC · block 218207535 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 21:06 UTC
70out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
59
151 of 256 outside buyers
Buy pressure
100
buys 0.66 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
84
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
36
2 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 20:23 UTC
Price now
20.07x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.84x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
151 of 256 · 59.0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
2 buys (0.66 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
2
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
1.2% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
1.8% · 6 of 6 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
3
3
3
4
90
Buyers spent
0.10 NEAR
0.10 NEAR
0.10 NEAR
0.13 NEAR
15.31 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.0009 NEAR
-0.0009 NEAR
-0.0032 NEAR
-0.0032 NEAR
+7.95 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
3
5
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+0.0005 NEAR
+0.0005 NEAR
-0.0004 NEAR
+0.0006 NEAR
+0.17 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.02x
1.02x
1.02x
1.02x
4.55x
Holders
4
4
3
5
89
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
58.5%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.6% · holds
0.6% · holds
0.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
<0.01% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
1.3% · 3 of 3 hold
1.3% · 3 of 3 hold
1.3% · 2 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
1.3% · 3 wallets
1.3% · 3 wallets
1.3% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
98.1%
98.1%
98.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.