N3AR nearly.trade

n3ar.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 3.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 300, creator_bps 2000).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (954 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 0.69 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: kmvx.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 20:14:30 UTC, 28.0 min after the launch: 5uhYzme9b4j93…AgLzY.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.69 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.25 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 19:46:29 UTC · block 217819803 · history: launch only
Transaction6SNaJBfeN5S9D…q8ma8
Creatorkmvx.near explorer
Pooln3ar.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy2.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-29 20:14 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 20:14 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.95x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 2 · 0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch——28.0 min28.0 min28.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)22222
Buyers spent12.00 NEAR12.00 NEAR12.00 NEAR12.00 NEAR12.00 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.61 NEAR-0.69 NEAR-0.69 NEAR-0.69 NEAR-0.69 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result-0.04 NEAR-0.12 NEAR-0.25 NEAR-0.25 NEAR-0.25 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.03x1.03x1.03x1.03x1.03x
Holders32122
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.2% · holds 0.4% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers 0.2% · 1 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.2% · 2 wallets0% · 2 wallets0% · 2 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.6%99.6%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 2 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 24 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction -0.11 NEAR
2 babaablacksheep.near 70 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 87 s after buying · transaction -0.58 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kmvx.near

None known.