NC nearly.trade

nc.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (1.400% per buy, 1.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
    Evidence: launch nc.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2043 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 41.37 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 101.2% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: ec666b478d784dda97a53…0b79b (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 09:40:47 UTC, 35.3 min after the launch: 64aoLMuPqRhtt…F8H9e.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -41.37 NEAR · insiders' net result: +5.89 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-02 09:05:32 UTC · block 218182428 · history: launch only
TransactionCjyQBFxxzbdvu…EsSAk
Creatorec666b478d784dda97a53fa91dfa5ab97bace91980ebcdbb82754b8f4af0b79b explorer
Poolnc.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-03 22:40 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-03 22:40 UTC
Price now0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.57x the peak
Outside buyers in profit7 of 28 · 25%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side0% · 0 of 3 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 8 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%101.2%107.7%
Dev's first sell after launch———35.3 min35.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1223262828
Buyers spent207.00 NEAR425.15 NEAR708.11 NEAR716.09 NEAR716.09 NEAR
Buyers net result-5.62 NEAR+26.84 NEAR-8.36 NEAR-41.37 NEAR-41.91 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%101.2%107.7%
Insiders' net result+5.93 NEAR+20.48 NEAR+16.43 NEAR+5.89 NEAR+8.46 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.42x1.59x1.59x1.59x1.59x
Holders7191695
Top 10 holders' share100%95.1%99.5%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — 1.7% · 2 of 3 hold 0% · 0 of 3 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 4.3% · 4 of 8 hold 4.8% · 4 of 8 hold 0.4% · 2 of 8 hold
Other early buyers 0.8% · 2 of 4 hold 9.7% · 8 of 12 hold 0.6% · 3 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)5.1% · 12 wallets16.1% · 23 wallets1.0% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)91%80.0%99.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%95.1%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged95.1% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 12 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -0.32 NEAR
pair bought within 10.3 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2 neverekt.near 22 s · transaction 3.50 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction +0.22 NEAR
pair bought within 10.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.5 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3 supremegay.near 42 s · transaction 70.00 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +5.97 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 5.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4 3347dd8076331ad…52407 48 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction -0.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 25.5 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5 e8a162641a55288…58210 59 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.68 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 10.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.2 s of neverekt.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 70 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 14.7 min after buying · transaction -3.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 10.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 imnotnice.near 90 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction -1.46 NEAR
pair bought within 19.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 kimpet77.near 91 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR 3.2 min after buying · transaction -3.43 NEAR
pair bought within 21.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
9 unknownchain.near 114 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 116 s after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR none found
10 barrey.near 2.6 min · transaction 29.00 NEAR 12.6 min after buying · transaction -2.09 NEAR none found
11 lordbanana2.near 2.7 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 79 s after buying · transaction -2.38 NEAR none found
12 b8185e452876272…dff87 2.9 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.34 NEAR none found
13 2a7a11a1735bee1…f1cc7 5.7 min · transaction 99.00 NEAR 8.7 min after buying · transaction +15.55 NEAR
dev side received 22.65 NEAR from 5c337c4078212b5…92441 (a member of the dev's linked group), 3591.7 min before its first buy · transaction
14 ed860953a6dfbe6…c9175 6.3 min · transaction 101.97 NEAR 8.8 min after buying · transaction +0.72 NEAR none found
15 579b7294974b54d…30203 7.0 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 8.8 min after buying · transaction -0.98 NEAR none found
16 d0c988b3c0df1c5…35a8c 7.0 min · transaction 84.15 NEAR 8.9 min after buying · transaction -12.24 NEAR none found
17 385660ee48e5a2d…c28fd 7.7 min · transaction 22.77 NEAR 28.8 min after buying · transaction -6.76 NEAR
dev side received 40.96 NEAR from 2a7a11a1735bee1…f1cc7 (a member of the dev's linked group), 2600.0 min before its first buy · transaction
18 87d022d1922a895…03e8f 7.7 min · transaction 19.80 NEAR 8.6 min after buying · transaction -4.39 NEAR none found
19 7fa4f823922eee0…3d6a7 8.8 min · transaction 22.77 NEAR 28.1 min after buying · transaction -6.69 NEAR
dev side received 49.63 NEAR from 7060c4c748380b5…4ad05 (a member of the dev's linked group), 2801.3 min before its first buy · transaction
20 1af39511c9f3aac…022f9 10.1 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction -0.22 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of ec666b478d784dda97a53…0b79b

None known.