NCE nearly.trade

nce.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 80.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 8000).
    Evidence: launch nce.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (1415 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 41 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 167.9% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: nearcommodityex.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 14:18:24 UTC, 70.6 min after the launch: C9qqjxM9SitsY…T54MR.
  • Received tokens from the dev: 814711d0360e7581eecc3…23e3b.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -105.00 NEAR · insiders' net result: +15.77 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 41% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-30 13:07:51 UTC · block 217921008 · history: launch only
Transaction3uFwcnMSyKyN3…sGCKU
Creatornearcommodityex.near explorer
Poolnce.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy10.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 80.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-06 16:09 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-06 16:09 UTC
Price now1.01x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.39x the peak
Outside buyers in profit29 of 84 · 34.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 15 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%167.9%
Dev's first sell after launch————70.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)639506484
Buyers spent102.64 NEAR749.96 NEAR1,021.56 NEAR1,595.34 NEAR1,982.19 NEAR
Buyers net result+5.54 NEAR+199.55 NEAR-28.73 NEAR+262.11 NEAR-105.00 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11122
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%167.9%
Insiders' net result+1.69 NEAR+11.47 NEAR+2.72 NEAR+14.42 NEAR+15.77 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.18x2.17x2.62x2.62x2.62x
Holders835203719
Top 10 holders' share100%66.7%91.7%75.1%97.6%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.9% · holds 0.9% · holds 0.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — <0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 2.4% · 2 of 2 hold 12.9% · 10 of 15 hold 7.9% · 6 of 15 hold
Other early buyers 6.2% · 4 of 4 hold 8.6% · 14 of 15 hold 2.7% · 5 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)8.6% · 6 wallets21.4% · 30 wallets10.6% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)90.4%77.6%88.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%66.7%75.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged71.0% · 3 merged76.7% · 2 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 sniper-bot.near 115 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +0.13 NEAR none found
2 maleurial2626.near 2.0 min · transaction 19.84 NEAR 12.0 min after buying · transaction +17.50 NEAR none found
3 hawks991.near 2.1 min · transaction 33.00 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +18.97 NEAR none found
4 01340eaadfc3648…b7491 2.1 min · transaction 24.00 NEAR 14.6 min after buying · transaction +23.89 NEAR none found
5 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 2.9 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 24.1 min after buying · transaction +1.17 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of syndi95.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
6 syndi95.near 2.9 min · transaction 114.08 NEAR 5.9 min after buying · transaction +7.56 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 6.2 min · transaction 2.50 NEAR not sold +2.51 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 48.5 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.1 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
8 57b20eecbda3461…ac7a1 6.3 min · transaction 28.50 NEAR not sold +24.59 NEAR none found
9 supremegay.near 6.3 min · transaction 168.64 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +30.61 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 8.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.4 s of kimpet77.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10 579b7294974b54d…30203 6.5 min · transaction 28.00 NEAR 23.2 min after buying · transaction -2.36 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 28.0 s of kimpet77.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.4 s of supremegay.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 slaynz.near 6.7 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 13.1 min after buying · transaction +0.71 NEAR
pair bought within 53.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.1 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 a3cb153394cd999…41e6c 6.8 min · transaction 6.00 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction +0.49 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches
pair bought within 19.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.5 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13 kindmouse4608.near 6.8 min · transaction 24.80 NEAR 9.6 min after buying · transaction +10.17 NEAR none found
14 kimpet77.near 7.0 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 115 s after buying · transaction -1.51 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 36.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 48.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
15 656575eebe44ed2…623d5 7.0 min · transaction 29.76 NEAR 8.5 min after buying · transaction +14.01 NEAR none found
16 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 7.0 min · transaction 80.00 NEAR 20.2 min after buying · transaction +9.83 NEAR
pair bought within 33.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.6 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
17 e3317fd5fa900b8…59e67 7.2 min · transaction 13.50 NEAR 9.3 min after buying · transaction +5.11 NEAR none found
18 e00953313c9b49e…b1762 7.4 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR 5.0 min after buying · transaction -0.18 NEAR
pair bought within 11.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.8 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.8 s of teend.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
19 5249d63913e1405…591d1 7.4 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR 85 s after buying · transaction -7.11 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
pair bought within 27.5 s of kimpet77.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.3 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.5 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
20 4e8fc2ceb737d3e…989e5 7.6 min · transaction 1.98 NEAR not sold +0.86 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearcommodityex.near

None known.