NEAR nearly.trade

near-25.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+5
The name 'near' was already used 74.1 h earlier by another creator (near-24.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch near-24.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (64e1cd5b685a6267a9ec464492caadb2ee60d82d39be59baae8cea357c75c9f4) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (1086 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +253.03 NEAR · insiders' net result: +52.71 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 85% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-15 02:13:58 UTC · block 220014904 · history: launch only
Transaction	7WD4HvcxqomXz…Q79XU
Creator	yilongma.near explorer
Pool	near-25.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-02 15:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-02 15:45 UTC
Price now	0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.37x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	11 of 40 · 27.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	3.7% · 2 of 14 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	16	16	19	37
Buyers spent	602.47 NEAR	602.47 NEAR	602.47 NEAR	739.97 NEAR	925.92 NEAR
Buyers net result	+220.02 NEAR	+186.86 NEAR	+186.86 NEAR	+308.84 NEAR	+253.03 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+48.04 NEAR	+43.90 NEAR	+43.90 NEAR	+58.54 NEAR	+52.71 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.23x	2.23x	2.23x	2.37x	2.61x
Holders	17	16	16	21	24
Top 10 holders' share	83.6%	87.5%	87.5%	81.0%	79.8%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.7% · holds	3.7% · holds	3.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	26.6% · 14 of 14 hold	25.1% · 13 of 14 hold	25.0% · 12 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	3.7% · 2 of 2 hold	3.7% · 2 of 2 hold	9.3% · 5 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	30.4% · 16 wallets	28.8% · 16 wallets	34.2% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	65.9%	67.4%	62.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	83.6%	87.5%	81.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.7% · 2 merged	99.7% · 2 merged	96.8% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.37 NEAR	pair bought within 14.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.4 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	6 s · transaction	63.49 NEAR	97 s after buying · transaction	+28.78 NEAR	pair bought within 1.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.8 s of alola.near · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	19 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	83 s after buying · transaction	+3.08 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 14.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.1 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	walletneartrader.near	31 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+24.51 NEAR	pair bought within 24.0 s of colddress6080.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.2 s of 1eb36e40386444f…c7cc0 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.8 s of bnearr.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	1eb36e40386444f…c7cc0	33 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	not sold	+28.44 NEAR	pair bought within 2.2 s of walletneartrader.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.7 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	bnearr.near	33 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	not sold	+40.80 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 21.1 s of colddress6080.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.6 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.5 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35	42 s · transaction	88.51 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	+60.61 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 12.5 s of colddress6080.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.9 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.4 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	46 s · transaction	22.44 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	+12.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 18.0 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	colddress6080.near	54 s · transaction	49.00 NEAR	not sold	+27.97 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 7.4 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.9 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb	62 s · transaction	49.00 NEAR	not sold	+22.54 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 7.4 s of colddress6080.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.5 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.9 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	64 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.41 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 59.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12	81425ea8846c2cb…9077f	71 s · transaction	29.53 NEAR	not sold	+11.14 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 16.9 s of colddress6080.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.5 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13	betteralex.near	73 s · transaction	58.00 NEAR	not sold	+17.15 NEAR	pair bought within 9.0 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.2 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.6 s of colddress6080.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
14	nearisgood.near	81 s · transaction	70.00 NEAR	not sold	+13.19 NEAR	none found
15	c56af31c5d7bb18…08101	89 s · transaction	70.00 NEAR	not sold	+5.99 NEAR	pair bought within 17.3 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.8 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.3 s of colddress6080.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16	ipaeshit.near	5.0 min · transaction	13.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.55 NEAR	none found
17	wlant.near	35.4 min · transaction	32.00 NEAR	not sold	+4.26 NEAR	none found
18	alwaysrich.near	37.6 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.21 NEAR	none found
19	letgetit.near	42.9 min · transaction	95.50 NEAR	not sold	+3.55 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of yilongma.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-30 22:23 UTC	nearly.trade	goonear.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-02 14:42 UTC	nearly.trade	bacterhea-3.nearlytrade.near	5 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only