NEARBOT nearly.trade

nearbot.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nearbot.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1115 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 17.90 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 570.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: a4f7f19605c7269344d47…7d6b5 (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 15:37:36 UTC, 107 s after the launch: 9aJgn2KHz85eK…GcHkP.
Outside buyers' net result: -17.90 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.98 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 15:35:49 UTC · block 217795636 · history: launch only
Transaction	4tLqRSYafYNQK…VNtNL
Creator	a4f7f19605c7269344d47e4f78f397dab53d071cd30c4bfe91d8c7fef3e7d6b5 explorer
Pool	nearbot.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.40 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 16:12 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	545.5%	545.5%	570.0%	570.0%
Dev's first sell after launch	107 s	107 s	107 s	107 s	107 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	20	20	20	20	20
Buyers spent	356.09 NEAR	356.09 NEAR	356.09 NEAR	356.09 NEAR	356.09 NEAR
Buyers net result	-17.74 NEAR	-17.81 NEAR	-17.90 NEAR	-17.90 NEAR	-17.90 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	545.5%	545.5%	570.0%	570.0%
Insiders' net result	+0.16 NEAR	+1.89 NEAR	+1.89 NEAR	+1.98 NEAR	+1.98 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.43x	1.43x	1.43x	1.43x	1.43x
Holders	4	2	1	3	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.2% · 2 of 19 hold	0.2% · 1 of 19 hold	0% · 0 of 19 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.3% · 20 wallets	0.2% · 20 wallets	0% · 20 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.7%	99.8%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	00867ad7c43fe5a…cdd9c	45 s · transaction	74.25 NEAR	82 s after buying · transaction	+8.24 NEAR	pair bought within 46.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2	supremegay.near	48 s · transaction	54.56 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.65 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 28.3 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
3	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	51 s · transaction	12.01 NEAR	32 s after buying · transaction	+1.23 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	51 s · transaction	12.01 NEAR	32 s after buying · transaction	+0.70 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
5	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	51 s · transaction	12.01 NEAR	32 s after buying · transaction	+0.97 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	3347dd8076331ad…52407	52 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	80 s after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 39.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.4 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	ebisidiaidi.near	70 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	43 s after buying · transaction	-2.25 NEAR	pair bought within 10.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.9 s of syndi95.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.3 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	syndi95.near	76 s · transaction	24.80 NEAR	70 s after buying · transaction	-5.67 NEAR	pair bought within 28.3 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	579b7294974b54d…30203	80 s · transaction	16.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-5.00 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 29.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.5 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.5 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10	darknes.near	87 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	46 s after buying · transaction	-1.22 NEAR	pair bought within 34.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	e00953313c9b49e…b1762	87 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	15.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.07 NEAR	pair bought within 4.6 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	sessssssssss.near	91 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	29 s after buying · transaction	-0.65 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 39.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
13	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	2.2 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 55.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.0 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.4 s of syndi95.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	luckyfrog8326.near	2.4 min · transaction	35.00 NEAR	96 s after buying · transaction	-5.12 NEAR	pair bought within 26.6 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of louduser4868.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.5 s of wolfgangamadeus.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15	lorenzo18.near	2.8 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	50 s after buying · transaction	-1.69 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 4.2 s of louduser4868.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.6 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.8 s of meteorrrr.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16	louduser4868.near	2.9 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	53 s after buying · transaction	-1.36 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 25.6 s of meteorrrr.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.2 s of lorenzo18.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17	wolfgangamadeus.near	2.9 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	49 s after buying · transaction	-0.68 NEAR	pair bought within 33.5 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.7 s of louduser4868.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of lorenzo18.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
18	office57.near	3.2 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	53 s after buying · transaction	-1.15 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 6.1 s of meteorrrr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.5 s of louduser4868.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.7 s of lorenzo18.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
19	meteorrrr.near	3.3 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	30 s after buying · transaction	-1.08 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 25.6 s of louduser4868.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.8 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of office57.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
20	iuyter.near	3.5 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	104 s after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of a4f7f19605c7269344d47…7d6b5

None known.