NEARCOIN nearly.trade

nearcoin.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nearcoin.nearlytr….near
+10
Received 30.00 NEAR 11 min before the launch from blockradarfun.near, whose earlier launch noted-2.nearlytrade.near (made by blockradaronnear.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction F7o4ZgyyRoyHrCj3T…jpmkx, launch noted-2.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1983 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 2.15 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 105.7% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: memecoinwhale.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 01:32:35 UTC, 52.3 min after the launch: FbAGgKzNbqCUj…a7YYn.
Outside buyers' net result: -2.15 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.28 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-02 00:40:18 UTC · block 218130967 · history: launch only
Transaction	AiKkLCN23cHD5…7Fphp
Creator	memecoinwhale.near explorer
Pool	nearcoin.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	5.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 02:30 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	105.7%	105.7%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	52.3 min	52.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	12	12	12	12	13
Buyers spent	68.00 NEAR	68.00 NEAR	68.00 NEAR	68.00 NEAR	69.00 NEAR
Buyers net result	-1.96 NEAR	-2.03 NEAR	-2.03 NEAR	-2.15 NEAR	-2.27 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	105.7%	105.7%
Insiders' net result	+0.09 NEAR	+0.07 NEAR	+0.07 NEAR	+0.28 NEAR	+0.28 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x
Holders	2	2	2	3	3
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.5% · holds	0.5% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.8% · 1 of 11 hold	1.8% · 1 of 11 hold	1.8% · 1 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	1.8% · 12 wallets	1.8% · 12 wallets	1.8% · 12 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.7%	97.7%	98.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 12 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 9.6 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	10 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.51 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.0 s of neverekt.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	neverekt.near	19 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 9.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.0 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	a61602ebdc9b583…012fc	65 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	fd5c09668cb779b…28411	66 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	61 s after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4	66 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	61 s after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607	67 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6	67 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	61 s after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	886fd94398f173c…35c2c	69 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	69 s after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27	69 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-0.36 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.9 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	3347dd8076331ad…52407	74 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	59 s after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 55.2 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.5 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.5 s of 886fd94398f173c…35c2c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12	fd45b6de05c0a80…1ff4e	104 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	48 s after buying · transaction	-0.49 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of memecoinwhale.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-02 01:15 UTC	nearly.trade	cash.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-02 01:28 UTC	nearly.trade	raydium.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only