Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): the creator account was created 5 min before the launch; it received 1.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch (largest transfer from narrownook4299.near).
Received 1.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch from narrownook4299.near, whose earlier launch doomslug-3.nearlytrade.near (made by roundzip6566.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Issued before a fix of creator links (2026-11-11): the creator's links would have added 30 points (score 70, band High).
A card issued at launch time did not yet see the links of a new creator to an existing network of accounts: the link tables are rebuilt only after a launch. Since the fix the card attaches the creator to that network from the data known at launch time. The card above stays as it was issued; the accuracy table counts it as issued.
v2 signals (weights fitted on launch history before the split date) plus two expert rules whose points are set by hand, not fitted (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange), and the creator's fee of justhoot launches. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 27 % (271 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 92 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-12 06:40:20 UTC, 553.4 min after the launch: AitCNt2ZgR1rv…rhvPr.
Outside buyers' net result: -1.82 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.02 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 92% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-12T21:26 UTC with config v2l-1.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 15:46 UTC
31out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
33
1 of 3 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
92
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 19:20 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.92x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
1 of 3 · 33.3%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
553.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
2
2
2
2
3
Buyers spent
46.00 NEAR
46.00 NEAR
46.00 NEAR
46.00 NEAR
46.70 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.42 NEAR
-1.80 NEAR
-1.80 NEAR
-1.80 NEAR
-1.82 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
Insiders' net result
+0.02 NEAR
+0.0067 NEAR
+0.0067 NEAR
+0.0067 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.05x
1.07x
1.07x
1.07x
1.07x
Holders
3
1
1
1
0
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
—
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.0% · holds
0.0% · holds
0.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
4.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
4.2% · 2 wallets
0% · 2 wallets
0% · 2 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
95.7%
100.0%
100.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 2 wallets that bought, and what links them
dev side received 4.17 NEAR from roundzip6566.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 127.0 min before its first buy · transaction
What the links mean
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.