NEARDRGN nearly.trade

neardrgn.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch neardrgn.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 34 % (725 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 10.28 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 3; they sold 100.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: whatsthelore.near (recipient).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-23 01:28:42 UTC, 16.7 min after the launch: A2f5199LFzj4g…mKn5V.
  • Received tokens from the dev: 5d8f34a3434e2ecbc6920…d9c57, whatsthelore.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -10.28 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.37 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-23 01:12:03 UTC · block 221169477 · history: launch only
TransactionDEULjHMTwqy9U…K59sh
Creatornear_dragons.near explorer
Poolneardrgn.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy10.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-23 09:07 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-23 09:07 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.69x the peak
Outside buyers in profit7 of 23 · 30.4%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0.9% · 1 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 13 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1922222323
Buyers spent188.93 NEAR240.78 NEAR241.78 NEAR242.77 NEAR242.77 NEAR
Buyers net result+13.10 NEAR+0.91 NEAR-10.21 NEAR-10.28 NEAR-10.66 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)13333
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Insiders' net result+2.59 NEAR+1.58 NEAR+1.37 NEAR+1.37 NEAR+1.37 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.41x1.41x1.41x1.41x1.41x
Holders16141094
Top 10 holders' share94.3%100.0%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.9% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — 1.9% · 2 of 2 hold 0.9% · 1 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 4.3% · 10 of 13 hold 1.4% · 6 of 13 hold 1.2% · 4 of 13 hold
Other early buyers 5.2% · 5 of 6 hold 7.0% · 5 of 9 hold 0.1% · 3 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)9.6% · 19 wallets8.5% · 22 wallets1.3% · 23 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)89.5%89.6%97.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)94.3%100.0%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder97.0% · 1 merged100.0% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 onlyrekt.near 2 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold +0.0029 NEAR
pair bought within 0.6 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
2 jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 33.0 min after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
3 bright-panda-28….near trading bot wallet 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 65 s after buying · transaction +0.35 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 110 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 85 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
4 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction +0.16 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
5 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 35.0 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
6 tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
7 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +0.22 NEAR
pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
8 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 5 s · transaction 20.41 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction +1.34 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches
pair bought within 1.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 10 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -0.37 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches
pair bought within 7.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.4 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10 5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc 14 s · transaction 6.00 NEAR not sold -0.50 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches
pair bought within 11.3 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.7 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11 alola.near 15 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 11.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
12 hmmmm.user.intear.near 19 s · transaction 59.31 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction +5.71 NEAR
pair bought within 4.6 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13 hungcoiiii1.near 57 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.5 min after buying · transaction -0.55 NEAR
pair bought within 41.9 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 82 s · transaction 5.10 NEAR 3.2 min after buying · transaction +0.48 NEAR none found
15 magaji11.near 83 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 7.7 min after buying · transaction -1.99 NEAR none found
16 narrownook4299.near 3.0 min · transaction 42.00 NEAR 23.2 min after buying · transaction -6.52 NEAR none found
17 phbo.near 3.4 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 113 s after buying · transaction -0.65 NEAR none found
18 trueroom9384.near 3.5 min · transaction 12.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -2.02 NEAR none found
19 i5229173676.tg 3.8 min · transaction 0.61 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR none found
20 gooner7.near 6.7 min · transaction 1.05 NEAR 27 s after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of near_dragons.near

None known.