NEARDY nearly.trade

neardy.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 80.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 8000).
    Evidence: launch neardy.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 14 % (1002 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 95.13 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 165.5% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: neardystock.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 14:31:08 UTC, 43.7 min after the launch: CrJ8YcUFab6R9…sv6LB.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -95.13 NEAR · insiders' net result: +22.08 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 13:47:27 UTC · block 217784807 · history: launch only
TransactionFAwfsxynLSVU1…MEXCx
Creatorneardystock.near explorer
Poolneardy.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy7.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 80.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-06 08:34 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-06 08:34 UTC
Price now0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.28x the peak
Outside buyers in profit30 of 92 · 32.6%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 20 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%165.5%172.1%
Dev's first sell after launch———43.7 min43.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)3864809192
Buyers spent619.77 NEAR1,153.64 NEAR1,469.89 NEAR1,686.48 NEAR1,687.47 NEAR
Buyers net result+281.53 NEAR+426.20 NEAR+469.78 NEAR-95.13 NEAR-105.42 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%165.5%172.1%
Insiders' net result+9.35 NEAR+12.47 NEAR+13.48 NEAR+22.08 NEAR+22.53 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.26x2.87x2.96x3.31x3.31x
Holders3349602410
Top 10 holders' share67.8%58.1%55.7%95.5%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.7% · holds 0.7% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 20.0% · 14 of 20 hold 15.0% · 12 of 20 hold 0% · 0 of 20 hold
Other early buyers 6.5% · 9 of 10 hold 1.3% · 5 of 10 hold <0.01% · 1 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)26.4% · 30 wallets16.3% · 30 wallets0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)72.9%83.0%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)67.8%58.1%95.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder75.8% · 2 merged66.0% · 2 merged95.5% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 supremegay.near 38 s · transaction 87.60 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction +40.30 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 11.7 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
2 3347dd8076331ad…52407 45 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 2.7 min after buying · transaction +0.25 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 21.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.8 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3 syndi95.near 50 s · transaction 69.44 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +12.06 NEAR
pair bought within 11.7 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.1 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4 kindmouse4608.near 66 s · transaction 12.90 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction +14.23 NEAR none found
5 maleurial2626.near 66 s · transaction 19.84 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction +22.61 NEAR none found
6 e8a162641a55288…58210 66 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 13.2 min after buying · transaction +5.89 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 21.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7 b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 81 s · transaction 16.45 NEAR 37 s after buying · transaction -0.50 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
8 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 81 s · transaction 16.45 NEAR 41 s after buying · transaction -1.33 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
9 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 81 s · transaction 16.45 NEAR 37 s after buying · transaction -1.35 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 81 s · transaction 16.45 NEAR 37 s after buying · transaction -1.52 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 81 s · transaction 16.45 NEAR 37 s after buying · transaction -1.10 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
12 551f3c8e3099f50…08ada 94 s · transaction 4.96 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +3.17 NEAR none found
13 656575eebe44ed2…623d5 96 s · transaction 19.84 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +14.45 NEAR none found
14 f0e0911c34bd45d…ada75 98 s · transaction 9.92 NEAR 15.2 min after buying · transaction +11.24 NEAR none found
15 oliut100.near 102 s · transaction 19.84 NEAR 7.3 min after buying · transaction +12.04 NEAR
pair bought within 16.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 57.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16 579b7294974b54d…30203 109 s · transaction 25.00 NEAR 42.7 min after buying · transaction +3.65 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 27.8 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.8 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.8 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
17 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 119 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR 17.9 min after buying · transaction +0.90 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 53.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.8 s of oliut100.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
18 i1789441676.tg 2.3 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 50.6 min after buying · transaction -0.11 NEAR none found
19 luckyfrog8326.near 2.3 min · transaction 45.00 NEAR 17.5 min after buying · transaction +43.31 NEAR
pair bought within 31.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.2 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.9 s of louduser4868.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
20 smoothjail1300.near 2.8 min · transaction 2.50 NEAR 12.8 min after buying · transaction +0.90 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of neardystock.near

None known.