NEARFACE nearly.trade

nearface.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 40.00% of it (1.200% per buy, 1.200% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nearface.nearlytr….near

The largest funder's (5c33c6218d47e00ef229f60da78d0897e1ee9665312550b8afd5f9c7bc6957d2) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 10 % (898 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 18 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: nearface.near (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.37 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 18% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 11:03:43 UTC · block 217768526 · history: launch only
TransactionEtw5ZPiNF8bXk…PheQc
Creatornearface.near explorer
Poolnearface.nearlytrade.near|nearly-993927.nearlytrade.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-14 00:50 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-14 00:50 UTC
Price now1.05x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.16x the peak
Outside buyers in profit67 of 209 · 32.0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group1.0% · 1 of 13 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch————634.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2766121190208
Buyers spent0.42 NEAR0.94 NEAR2.24 NEAR4.15 NEAR4.75 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.13 NEAR+0.36 NEAR+2.18 NEAR+1.58 NEAR-0.37 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+0.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.85x3.28x6.53x6.72x6.72x
Holders286010914344
Top 10 holders' share75.4%59.1%40.8%37.1%87.5%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 9.8% · 11 of 11 hold 6.3% · 8 of 13 hold 3.1% · 8 of 13 hold
Other early buyers 17.9% · 16 of 16 hold 16.5% · 15 of 17 hold 8.7% · 13 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)27.7% · 27 wallets22.8% · 30 wallets11.8% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)72.3%77.2%88.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)75.4%59.1%37.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder81.8% · 2 merged59.5% · 2 merged37.1% · 2 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 d0tz.near 40 s · transaction 0.03 NEAR 13.1 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
pair bought within 34.2 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 syndi95.near 63 s · transaction 0.04 NEAR 13.3 min after buying · transaction +0.04 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 11.4 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.6 s of snuffdog.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.6 s of mumbay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
3 7eb5e8b92efe5b7…661af 64 s · transaction 0.03 NEAR 27.0 min after buying · transaction +0.10 NEAR none found
4 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 75 s · transaction 0.0005 NEAR not sold +0.0018 NEAR
pair bought within 11.4 s of syndi95.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 39.2 s of oliut100.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.2 s of d0tz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 mumbay.near 80 s · transaction 0.05 NEAR 12.8 min after buying · transaction +0.06 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 4 of those launches
pair bought within 16.6 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.0 s of snuffdog.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 farcastmage.near 83 s · transaction 0.04 NEAR not sold +0.12 NEAR none found
7 e4eb488d33e597f…16325 88 s · transaction 0.02 NEAR 13.5 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR none found
8 3bacb5f099bc787…611a5 105 s · transaction 0.02 NEAR 21.7 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR none found
9 snuffdog.near 109 s · transaction 0.0096 NEAR 49.9 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 45.6 s of syndi95.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.0 s of mumbay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.8 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 93eb2b8bd3416f3…1668e 113 s · transaction 0.0048 NEAR 13.5 min after buying · transaction +0.0034 NEAR none found
11 oliut100.near 114 s · transaction 0.0096 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction +0.0080 NEAR
pair bought within 39.2 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.6 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 a56af80bbfe8aef…157d2 116 s · transaction 0.04 NEAR 27.4 min after buying · transaction +0.11 NEAR none found
13 2e76ee631bc8d52…b63e4 2.2 min · transaction 0.05 NEAR 7.3 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR none found
14 8f401e7ad9c7b5e…b220d 2.4 min · transaction 0.02 NEAR 29.2 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR none found
15 80289da0a50f047…d6989 2.4 min · transaction 0.02 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction +0.0060 NEAR
pair bought within 36.8 s of snuffdog.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 579b7294974b54d…30203 2.9 min · transaction 0.04 NEAR 12.0 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 42.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.1 s of 5afbf66ccec6b03…c4bfd · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 1045d1ef60f4286…8615f 3.4 min · transaction 0.0095 NEAR 42.4 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR none found
18 e8a162641a55288…58210 3.6 min · transaction 0.03 NEAR 104 s after buying · transaction +0.0039 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 42.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.7 s of 5afbf66ccec6b03…c4bfd · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.5 s of wolfgangamadeus.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 gakusahliat.near 3.7 min · transaction 0.0010 NEAR 11.4 min after buying · transaction +0.0003 NEAR none found
20 5afbf66ccec6b03…c4bfd 3.8 min · transaction 0.0087 NEAR 10.9 min after buying · transaction +0.0070 NEAR
pair bought within 6.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearface.near

None known.