NEARFI nearly.trade

nearfi-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch nearfi-4.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 41 % (801 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 86 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: nearfitech.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-29 15:23:26 UTC, 284.3 min after the launch: G27TR6u9XH4t8…9dhED.
Outside buyers' net result: -4.26 NEAR · insiders' net result: -2.59 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 86% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-29 10:39:07 UTC · block 222113634 · history: launch only
Transaction	CErQDib4EaYjh…yM3uR
Creator	nearfitech.near explorer
Pool	nearfi-4.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-29 16:27 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-29 16:27 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.86x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	3 of 14 · 21.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 10 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	284.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	10	10	10	10	14
Buyers spent	33.74 NEAR	33.74 NEAR	33.74 NEAR	33.74 NEAR	79.94 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.50 NEAR	-0.66 NEAR	-0.66 NEAR	-0.71 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
Insiders' net result	+1.39 NEAR	+1.16 NEAR	+1.16 NEAR	+1.10 NEAR	-2.59 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.14x	1.14x	1.14x	1.14x	1.15x
Holders	5	3	3	2	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.6% · holds	3.6% · holds	3.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.1% · 4 of 10 hold	2.0% · 2 of 10 hold	1.9% · 1 of 10 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.1% · 10 wallets	2.0% · 10 wallets	1.9% · 10 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	94.2%	94.4%	94.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 10 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
2	pussy.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
3	onlyrekt.near	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	10.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
4	jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
5	tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
6	dolph.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
7	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
8	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
9	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	22.74 NEAR	not sold	-0.89 NEAR	pair bought within 1.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	15 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 11.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearfitech.near

None known.