115 of the 318 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 115 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 36%.
Received 2.00 NEAR 672.5 h before the launch from narrownook4299.near, whose earlier launch nfi.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near (made by nearfi-tech.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 32 % (258 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -2.18 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.13 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 90% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-12T12:08 UTC with config v2l-1.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 19:47 UTC
23out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
0
0 of 4 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
92
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 12:07 UTC
Price now
1.00x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.92x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 4 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0.2% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
3
3
3
3
3
Buyers spent
47.00 NEAR
47.00 NEAR
57.00 NEAR
58.00 NEAR
58.00 NEAR
Buyers net result
+0.47 NEAR
+0.47 NEAR
+0.75 NEAR
-2.18 NEAR
-2.18 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+0.04 NEAR
+0.04 NEAR
+0.06 NEAR
-0.05 NEAR
-0.13 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.07x
1.07x
1.08x
1.09x
1.09x
Holders
2
2
2
1
1
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.2% · holds
0.2% · holds
0.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
3.3% · 1 of 3 hold
3.3% · 1 of 3 hold
0% · 0 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
3.3% · 3 wallets
3.3% · 3 wallets
0% · 3 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
96.5%
96.5%
99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 3 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.