NEARLYAI nearly.trade

nearlyai.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 60.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 300, sell_bps 300, creator_bps 6000).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (149 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 170.11 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 972.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: itsmerouter.near (recipient).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 16:36:08 UTC, 12.6 min after the launch: BWfuNbD6Xvmd6…CcfE1.
  • Received tokens from the dev: itsmerouter.near.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -170.11 NEAR · insiders' net result: +114.03 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-27 16:23:31 UTC · block 217509810 · history: launch only
Transaction7TngvVWJrTV2U…a6NgT
Creator0d31377ed8fa98520a6699c7a0e2c7ee4c30753161b19f3aeaa836e176522935 explorer
Poolnearlyai.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy5.50 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 60.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-08 16:39 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-08 16:39 UTC
Price now1.00x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.22x the peak
Outside buyers in profit28 of 109 · 25.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 11 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%47.3%
Dev's first sell after launch————470.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)24617677107
Buyers spent579.62 NEAR2,416.02 NEAR2,898.80 NEAR2,919.80 NEAR3,574.94 NEAR
Buyers net result+286.33 NEAR+620.65 NEAR+236.40 NEAR-170.11 NEAR-243.90 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11122
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%972.0%1222.5%
Insiders' net result+7.38 NEAR+13.48 NEAR+9.32 NEAR+114.03 NEAR+135.43 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.36x4.58x4.58x4.58x4.58x
Holders2644492624
Top 10 holders' share70.8%61.3%58.3%87.8%94.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.5% · holds 0.5% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — 0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 12.0% · 10 of 10 hold 6.0% · 6 of 11 hold 0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers 22.6% · 14 of 14 hold 16.4% · 13 of 19 hold 8.7% · 7 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)34.6% · 24 wallets22.4% · 30 wallets8.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)64.9%77.1%91.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)70.8%61.3%87.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder74.0% · 1 merged61.3% · 1 merged87.8% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 d62f60f42ab8dc4…be5cb 34 s · transaction 24.75 NEAR not sold +12.00 NEAR
2 7318391a801553f…cdcae 50 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR not sold +4.66 NEAR
3 9746b41510679a6…cac9b 50 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR not sold +4.39 NEAR
4 hardgrain5781.near 54 s · transaction 79.60 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction -5.68 NEAR
5 ef9ba8cbfdfb0df…2e62d 84 s · transaction 19.90 NEAR 12.4 min after buying · transaction +27.71 NEAR
6 crsl.near 89 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 8.9 min after buying · transaction +48.78 NEAR
7 mggabsc.near 95 s · transaction 120.00 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction +64.64 NEAR
8 llllord.near 114 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction +11.51 NEAR
9 b0545f021a857a3…0d1e0 115 s · transaction 9.95 NEAR 34.8 min after buying · transaction +3.06 NEAR
10 irene.user.intear.near 2.2 min · transaction 19.09 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction +28.13 NEAR
11 d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a 2.2 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction +5.11 NEAR
12 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 2.4 min · transaction 29.85 NEAR 13.1 min after buying · transaction +23.74 NEAR
13 0xpoww.near 2.5 min · transaction 9.00 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction +8.40 NEAR
14 coolnook7072.near 2.8 min · transaction 68.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction +2.69 NEAR
15 8193b5592bb995b…afb87 3.0 min · transaction 49.60 NEAR 7.2 min after buying · transaction +43.15 NEAR
16 capuccino88.near 3.0 min · transaction 35.00 NEAR 44.3 min after buying · transaction -5.63 NEAR
17 csrbul.near 3.2 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction +3.23 NEAR
18 544dfa1031c3374…7c75d 3.4 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 9.1 min after buying · transaction +24.27 NEAR
19 54e97bf0cc3481f…4528c 3.4 min · transaction 9.95 NEAR not sold -2.78 NEAR
20 41893492be025fc…dc9ec 3.8 min · transaction 99.50 NEAR 33.8 min after buying · transaction -24.62 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 0d31377ed8fa98520a669…22935

None known.