NEARLYBOT nearly.trade

nearlybot-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 90.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 9000).
  • +5
    The name 'nearlybot' was already used 23 min earlier by another creator (nearlybot-3.nearlytrade.near).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (1430 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — late (by T+24 h). Outside buyers lost 583.58 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 121.9% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 65b44f2bf3ed65df43a00…a3d89 (recipient).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 17:47:47 UTC, 229.1 min after the launch: E8V4W7QvSQAch…XzAGk.
  • Received tokens from the dev: 65b44f2bf3ed65df43a00…a3d89.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -583.58 NEAR · insiders' net result: +122.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 10% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-30 13:58:40 UTC · block 217925423 · history: launch only
TransactionGAGe5gjHcHuPZ…cjVUt
Creatorsharpjail8644.near explorer
Poolnearlybot-4.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 90.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-29 21:46 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-29 21:46 UTC
Price now1.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.09x the peak
Outside buyers in profit57 of 225 · 25.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 11 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)4443135225
Buyers spent25.05 NEAR25.05 NEAR1,498.79 NEAR5,132.80 NEAR8,250.11 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.03 NEAR-1.44 NEAR+1,324.06 NEAR+3,821.39 NEAR-583.58 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11112
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%121.9%
Insiders' net result+0.85 NEAR-0.37 NEAR+72.77 NEAR+158.97 NEAR+122.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.04x1.04x4.62x11.30x11.73x
Holders623511071
Top 10 holders' share100%100%50.5%35.9%69.4%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.9% · holds 1.9% · holds 1.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 2.2% · 4 of 4 hold 0% · 0 of 4 hold 2.4% · 5 of 11 hold
Other early buyers — — 17.9% · 14 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)2.2% · 4 wallets0% · 4 wallets20.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)95.9%98.1%77.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%35.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged36.6% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 4.5 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 6.5 min after buying · transaction -0.28 NEAR
2 dcd0f130058c370…2096f 4.5 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction -0.86 NEAR
3 kl1mmm.near 4.5 min · transaction 0.20 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +0.15 NEAR
4 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 4.7 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction -0.29 NEAR
5 d14df8705a3c460…7a89b 15.1 min · transaction 21.78 NEAR 22.5 min after buying · transaction +151.48 NEAR
6 95c3107dd84d218…95363 15.1 min · transaction 21.78 NEAR 22.5 min after buying · transaction +144.16 NEAR
7 6923581e4d3352d…a5f10 15.1 min · transaction 21.78 NEAR 24.1 min after buying · transaction +151.03 NEAR
8 cf4828103fa20f8…5760b 15.1 min · transaction 21.78 NEAR 22.5 min after buying · transaction +132.30 NEAR
9 25e8c170279ff53…8a81c 15.1 min · transaction 21.78 NEAR 22.5 min after buying · transaction +125.46 NEAR
10 b0ec1f61f2a81ce…34698 15.4 min · transaction 21.78 NEAR 22.1 min after buying · transaction +120.46 NEAR
11 d845fc69f928c43…b9f79 21.4 min · transaction 39.60 NEAR 33.4 min after buying · transaction +235.76 NEAR
12 e8a162641a55288…58210 22.5 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction +1.43 NEAR
13 kimpet77.near 22.5 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction +12.55 NEAR
14 leftjail6417.near 23.3 min · transaction 49.75 NEAR 33.4 min after buying · transaction +256.78 NEAR
15 3e1f56b34f90a9a…52be2 23.4 min · transaction 47.52 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +159.57 NEAR
16 4d9dcca8a3f84af…24a17 23.4 min · transaction 47.52 NEAR 9.7 min after buying · transaction +165.93 NEAR
17 nonearforyou.near 23.9 min · transaction 39.68 NEAR 21.6 min after buying · transaction +152.44 NEAR
18 af6db9422ccd6a2…c372a 24.1 min · transaction 11.88 NEAR 3.9 min after buying · transaction +9.87 NEAR
19 c6fc33d3760ae0d…d4ab4 24.1 min · transaction 9.90 NEAR 17.5 min after buying · transaction +32.48 NEAR
20 cabal0.near 24.1 min · transaction 39.60 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +26.67 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of sharpjail8644.near

None known.