nearlyhoot-156b7b.launc….near justhoot v1

nearlyhoot-156b7b.launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 10 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+10
Received 1.20 NEAR 20.0 h before the launch from kuill.near, whose earlier launch helsinkiha.nearlytrade.near (made by obitoisdead.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction HNXr1Ls3wzaimYTag…abRUF, launch helsinkiha.nearly….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (817 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -5.91 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 81% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-18 16:05:58 UTC · block 220534031 · history: launch only
Transaction	Hn4n9Z2JMokD5…RGkRi
Creator	yesitsme.near explorer
Pool	nearlyhoot-156b7b.launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-19 08:05 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	20	21	21	21
Buyers spent	128.46 NEAR	136.41 NEAR	157.10 NEAR	157.10 NEAR	157.10 NEAR
Buyers net result	-4.07 NEAR	-4.55 NEAR	-5.86 NEAR	-5.88 NEAR	-5.91 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x
Holders	12	8	4	3	1
Top 10 holders' share	97.4%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0.5% · 1 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.5% · 5 of 9 hold	0.2% · 3 of 9 hold	0.1% · 1 of 9 hold
Other early buyers	1.1% · 6 of 7 hold	1.1% · 5 of 9 hold	0.2% · 2 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.1% · 18 wallets	1.3% · 20 wallets	0.2% · 21 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.9%	98.7%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.4%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.6% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	2 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.0061 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
2	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.0037 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
3	ro52.near	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 0.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
4	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of cockis.near · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
5	cockis.near	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.03 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 1.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	26 s · transaction	15.85 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.85 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches dev side received 2.05 NEAR from obitoisdead.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 921.0 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 0.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.6 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	26 s · transaction	63.37 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-2.07 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches dev side received 1.00 NEAR from kuill.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 6909.4 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 21.6 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	748545ba09e20b4…50999	35 s · transaction	2.75 NEAR	8.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.40 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 8.9 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.7 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	47 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	pair bought within 44.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	shikigima.near	53 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	52 s after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	pair bought within 5.7 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.2 s of cockis.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	61 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	87 s after buying · transaction	-0.29 NEAR	pair bought within 13.5 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	paper_jambologi….near	72 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	dev side received 3.00 NEAR from obitoisdead.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 1049.8 min before its first buy · transaction
13	snow-lie.near	2.4 min · transaction	3.96 NEAR	8.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.67 NEAR	none found
14	robotic_drone2.….near	2.4 min · transaction	2.65 NEAR	7.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.45 NEAR	none found
15	ethereal_tentac….near	2.9 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	not sold	-0.33 NEAR	none found
16	jakeronthia.near	3.2 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	none found
17	quick-rider-483….near	4.1 min · transaction	2.36 NEAR	12.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	none found
18	b0562ff7d2835cb…d3fa0	4.3 min · transaction	0.10 NEAR	not sold	-0.0065 NEAR	none found
19	metallic_snowma….near	14.4 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	101 s after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	none found
20	hellopeace.near	14.4 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	13.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of yesitsme.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-17 20:07 UTC	nearly.trade	robinu-2.nearlytrade.near	35 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only