ROBINU nearly.trade

robinu-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 35 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch robinu-2.nearlytr….near
+10
Received 1.20 NEAR 4 min before the launch from kuill.near, whose earlier launch antithesis.nearlytrade.near (made by tiadoyinnn.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction HNXr1Ls3wzaimYTag…abRUF, launch antithesis.nearly….near
+5
The name 'robinu' was already used 93.0 h earlier by another creator (robinu.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch robinu.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (809 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 75 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: yesitsme.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -7.83 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.98 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 75% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-17 20:07:31 UTC · block 220413297 · history: launch only
Transaction	6trEkEmSCN8Xh…UiMUN
Creator	yesitsme.near explorer
Pool	robinu-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-18 16:01 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	1194.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	17	17	17	17	17
Buyers spent	209.39 NEAR	211.39 NEAR	213.84 NEAR	213.84 NEAR	213.84 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.61 NEAR	-6.34 NEAR	-6.97 NEAR	-7.74 NEAR	-7.83 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+0.98 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.32x	1.32x	1.32x	1.32x	1.32x
Holders	13	7	5	1	2
Top 10 holders' share	96.8%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.8% · 5 of 8 hold	0.7% · 3 of 8 hold	0.5% · 1 of 8 hold
Other early buyers	5.9% · 8 of 8 hold	2.1% · 4 of 8 hold	0% · 0 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.7% · 17 wallets	2.8% · 17 wallets	0.5% · 17 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	93.3%	97.2%	99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	96.8%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.2% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 17 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ro52.near	2 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	10.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 bot_developer	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of ro52.near · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 6.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 54 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	31 s · transaction	120.24 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+2.49 NEAR	dev side received 1.00 NEAR from kuill.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 5711.0 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 28.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7	beenhere.near	53 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	23.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 50.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	bravox3.near	110 s · transaction	5.42 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.62 NEAR	none found
9	aranzimaxxing.u….near	113 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	80 s after buying · transaction	-0.89 NEAR	pair bought within 7.8 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	alola.near	2.0 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.23 NEAR	pair bought within 7.8 s of aranzimaxxing.u….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	ironborn.user.i….near	2.4 min · transaction	24.75 NEAR	11.9 min after buying · transaction	-5.58 NEAR	none found
12	fbd847915e19a7e….near	2.9 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	28.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	none found
13	hellopeace.near	3.0 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	none found
14	807c0817f8b8bc8…eefc9	4.1 min · transaction	12.02 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.28 NEAR	none found
15	stepheeen.near	4.2 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	none found
16	jacobfx.near	4.5 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.67 NEAR	none found
17	62d1b9c88f35252…f6973	4.7 min · transaction	10.01 NEAR	29.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.40 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of yesitsme.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-18 16:05 UTC	justhoot v1	nearlyhoot-156b7b.launchpad.justh….near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only