ANTITHESIS nearly.trade

antithesis.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch antithesis.nearly….near
+10
Received 2.70 NEAR 67.9 h before the launch from kuill.near, whose earlier launch baldman-027fe1.launchpad.justhoot.near ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
Evidence: transaction Bo1oMU1acGzAozQVo…HVh95, launch baldman-027fe1.la….near

The largest funder's (paper_jambologist3.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (808 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 10.77 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: tiadoyinnn.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-17 18:32:07 UTC, 18.8 min after the launch: 8tM67rTHsfzyT…yobgf.
Outside buyers' net result: -10.77 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.30 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-17 18:13:17 UTC · block 220401895 · history: launch only
Transaction	7rTaBUH3UDwkM…jqVgR
Creator	tiadoyinnn.near explorer
Pool	antithesis.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	3.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-18 00:44 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	139.0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	18.8 min	18.8 min	18.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	18	18	18	18
Buyers spent	340.73 NEAR	341.73 NEAR	341.73 NEAR	341.73 NEAR	341.73 NEAR
Buyers net result	-10.35 NEAR	-9.73 NEAR	-10.43 NEAR	-10.77 NEAR	-11.75 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	139.0%
Insiders' net result	-0.26 NEAR	-0.18 NEAR	-0.30 NEAR	-0.30 NEAR	+1.06 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x
Holders	5	5	4	2	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.3% · holds	0.3% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.8% · 4 of 13 hold	2.9% · 4 of 13 hold	2.4% · 2 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	0% · 0 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.8% · 18 wallets	2.9% · 18 wallets	2.4% · 18 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	96.9%	96.8%	97.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 18 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	52 s after buying · transaction	+0.18 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.6 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of ro52.near · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	20.34 NEAR	not sold	+0.01 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.4 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4	ro52.near	5 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 1.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 57 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	11 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.12 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 7.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.4 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	27 s · transaction	10.16 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 4.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.0 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	31 s · transaction	111.69 NEAR	73 s after buying · transaction	+20.72 NEAR	dev side received 1.00 NEAR from kuill.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 5596.8 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 20.0 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
8	e8a162641a55288…58210	41 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.32 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 37.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.9 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
9	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	41 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-4.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 9.3 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	51 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 47.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
11	quick-rider-483….near	61 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	32.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.38 NEAR	pair bought within 10.5 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.5 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.5 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12	5807dd1bbba54c9….near	70 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	110 s after buying · transaction	-0.40 NEAR	pair bought within 19.7 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.7 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13	nobelieee.near	74 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	45 s after buying · transaction	-10.59 NEAR	pair bought within 23.4 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	truezest4223.near	75 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	40 s after buying · transaction	-10.97 NEAR	pair bought within 23.9 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	567e43c697f4113…84e34	2.2 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	14 s after buying · transaction	-1.91 NEAR	none found
16	imweak.near	2.8 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	80 s after buying · transaction	-0.31 NEAR	none found
17	snow-lie.near	3.0 min · transaction	1.98 NEAR	84 s after buying · transaction	-0.22 NEAR	none found
18	arctic_parasite….near	3.1 min · transaction	0.05 NEAR	102 s after buying · transaction	-0.0053 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of tiadoyinnn.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-26 18:10 UTC	nearly.trade	skyto.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-19 16:22 UTC	justhoot v2	supertilli.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-19 23:52 UTC	nearly.trade	hackathon.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-27 19:02 UTC	nearly.trade	mob.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-11-12 14:20 UTC	nearly.trade	pocketgotchi.nearlytrade.near	27 Low	rug	live