supertilli.v2-launchpad….near justhoot v2

supertilli.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 10 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

The largest funder's (paper_jambologist3.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (797 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 18.11 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: tiadoyinnn.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-19 17:09:23 UTC, 47.3 min after the launch: EneSh2QrF2zbG…VKV2J.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -18.11 NEAR · insiders' net result: +10.45 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-19 16:22:08 UTC · block 220680539 · history: launch only
Transaction8XFHSs967rsv5…YKwbJ
Creatortiadoyinnn.near explorer
Poolsupertilli.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy10.35 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:49 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-31 02:07 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-31 02:07 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.59x the peak
Outside buyers in profit10 of 26 · 38.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 9 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch———47.3 min47.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1324252525
Buyers spent236.63 NEAR514.54 NEAR534.54 NEAR534.54 NEAR534.54 NEAR
Buyers net result-7.14 NEAR+63.65 NEAR-5.38 NEAR-18.11 NEAR-18.17 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%100%100%
Insiders' net result+11.11 NEAR+17.09 NEAR+13.17 NEAR+10.45 NEAR+10.45 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.38x1.65x1.65x1.65x1.65x
Holders614720
Top 10 holders' share100%99.0%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.0% · holds 1.0% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.2% · 3 of 9 hold 0.2% · 3 of 9 hold 0.1% · 1 of 9 hold
Other early buyers 3.1% · 2 of 2 hold 21% · 10 of 13 hold 0.1% · 1 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)3.3% · 13 wallets21.2% · 24 wallets0.2% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)95.7%77.8%99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%99.0%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged99.0% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 5 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR
pair bought within 0.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2 cockis.near 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.02 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
3 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 6 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 12.7 min after buying · transaction +0.18 NEAR
pair bought within 2.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
4 ro52.near 8 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 11 s after buying · transaction -0.37 NEAR
pair bought within 1.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 8 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +0.26 NEAR
pair bought within 2.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of cockis.near · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
6 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 31 s · transaction 10.09 NEAR 22 s after buying · transaction +3.04 NEAR
dev side received 2.05 NEAR from obitoisdead.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 2377.2 min before its first buy · transaction
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.0 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 31 s · transaction 121.08 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction -1.12 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches
dev side received 1.00 NEAR from kuill.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 8365.6 min before its first buy · transaction
pair bought within 18.0 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 38 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -7.03 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 11.8 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 e8a162641a55288…58210 39 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction -0.88 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 30.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.7 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10 alola.near 49 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.2 min after buying · transaction -0.18 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 41.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 44.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11 darkoasis5043.near 54 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 105 s after buying · transaction -0.59 NEAR
pair bought within 4.9 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 48.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12 cyber_phantom.u….near 4.2 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 111 s after buying · transaction +0.64 NEAR none found
13 9ce82f7c55c2f64….near 4.8 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR 12.5 min after buying · transaction +9.89 NEAR none found
14 zjroboz3r0.near 5.4 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 107 s after buying · transaction +0.89 NEAR none found
15 quick-rider-483….near 5.5 min · transaction 1.20 NEAR 14.9 min after buying · transaction +0.20 NEAR none found
16 ba0f0d4ae4338b9…b33c8 5.7 min · transaction 99.60 NEAR 23.3 min after buying · transaction -1.27 NEAR none found
17 imjet.near 6.0 min · transaction 26.73 NEAR 11.5 min after buying · transaction +2.28 NEAR none found
18 1e3e1c83ce489cb…33345 8.0 min · transaction 1.98 NEAR not sold -0.38 NEAR none found
19 keto2wavay.near 8.7 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +0.29 NEAR none found
20 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede 10.1 min · transaction 74.70 NEAR 21.4 min after buying · transaction -19.49 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of tiadoyinnn.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-26 18:10 UTC nearly.trade skyto.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-17 18:13 UTC nearly.trade antithesis.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-19 23:52 UTC nearly.trade hackathon.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-27 19:02 UTC nearly.trade mob.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro rug history: launch only
2026-11-12 14:20 UTC nearly.trade pocketgotchi.nearlytrade.near 27 Low rug live