MOB nearly.trade

mob.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch mob.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 2.70 NEAR 308.7 h before the launch from kuill.near, whose earlier launch supertilli.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near (made by tiadoyinnn.near, linked to him) ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
Evidence: transaction Bo1oMU1acGzAozQVo…HVh95, launch supertilli.v2-lau….near

The largest funder's (paper_jambologist3.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 39 % (826 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 4.26 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: tiadoyinnn.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-27 19:15:23 UTC, 12.9 min after the launch: 3E996LCTaQBdb…ifLkC.
Outside buyers' net result: -4.26 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.14 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-27 19:02:28 UTC · block 221866875 · history: launch only
Transaction	3PNyuFbD1dhCN…KLFBo
Creator	tiadoyinnn.near explorer
Pool	mob.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-27 21:41 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	12.9 min	12.9 min	12.9 min	12.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	14	14	14	14
Buyers spent	107.28 NEAR	113.68 NEAR	113.68 NEAR	113.68 NEAR	113.68 NEAR
Buyers net result	+1.64 NEAR	-4.22 NEAR	-4.25 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR	-4.26 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+0.12 NEAR	-0.14 NEAR	-0.14 NEAR	-0.14 NEAR	-0.14 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x
Holders	9	2	1	0	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	—	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.1% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.8% · 8 of 13 hold	0.2% · 2 of 13 hold	0% · 0 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	—	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	5.8% · 13 wallets	0.2% · 14 wallets	0% · 14 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	94.1%	99.8%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 0 merged	—

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 14 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	+0.16 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.23 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	+0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
6	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	21.59 NEAR	12.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.35 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 2.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	js1112s.near	15 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	13.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.86 NEAR	pair bought within 12.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.8 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	nearlys2.near	22 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.20 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 18.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.9 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	24 s · transaction	10.76 NEAR	91 s after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 7.1 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	3e5f029edb67f02…4bd45	30 s · transaction	7.53 NEAR	65 s after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 1.1 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.0 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	31 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	pair bought within 28.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
12	0xsantos.near	37 s · transaction	24.90 NEAR	10.9 min after buying · transaction	-2.49 NEAR	pair bought within 5.4 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	h2onear.near	48 s · transaction	4.90 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	pair bought within 16.9 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
14	krhuize.tg	6.4 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	6.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.51 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of tiadoyinnn.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-09-26 18:10 UTC	nearly.trade	skyto.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-17 18:13 UTC	nearly.trade	antithesis.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-19 16:22 UTC	justhoot v2	supertilli.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-19 23:52 UTC	nearly.trade	hackathon.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-11-12 14:20 UTC	nearly.trade	pocketgotchi.nearlytrade.near	27 Low	rug	live