baldman-027fe1.launchpa….near justhoot v1

baldman-027fe1.launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

The largest funder's (kudd.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (843 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 11.24 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: kuill.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-16 12:37:50 UTC, 51.9 min after the launch: GWpRDqE2pt3Fk…T8bK3.
Outside buyers' net result: -11.24 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.47 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-16 11:45:56 UTC · block 220218629 · history: launch only
Transaction	56HzgaZXYwFgY…axMEJ
Creator	kuill.near explorer
Pool	baldman-027fe1.launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-16 17:32 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	0%	0%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	51.9 min	51.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	24	24	24	25
Buyers spent	262.57 NEAR	325.52 NEAR	325.52 NEAR	325.52 NEAR	346.52 NEAR
Buyers net result	-2.79 NEAR	-0.60 NEAR	-10.03 NEAR	-11.24 NEAR	-11.23 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	0%	0%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	+0.07 NEAR	-0.31 NEAR	-0.47 NEAR	-0.47 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x
Holders	10	14	5	0	1
Top 10 holders' share	100%	93.3%	100%	—	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0.3% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0.3% · 1 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.0% · 6 of 12 hold	5.3% · 5 of 14 hold	0% · 0 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	1.4% · 4 of 5 hold	2.4% · 7 of 8 hold	0% · 0 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	5.4% · 18 wallets	7.9% · 24 wallets	0% · 24 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	94.6%	91.8%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	93.3%	—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	93.3% · 2 merged	—

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	12.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 19.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.3 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	e8a162641a55288…58210	10 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.64 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 7.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.1 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3	56c9a6ef438223b….near	16 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	79 s after buying · transaction	+4.24 NEAR	pair bought within 12.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.4 s of alola.near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	21 s · transaction	9.41 NEAR	11.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.56 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 9.3 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.5 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 19.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.3 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	kulesh_off.user….near	24 s · transaction	6.93 NEAR	75 s after buying · transaction	+0.24 NEAR	pair bought within 29.1 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	30 s · transaction	122.33 NEAR	58 s after buying · transaction	+5.21 NEAR	dev side received 1.00 NEAR from kuill.near (the dev), 3769.4 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 23.2 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	748545ba09e20b4…50999	41 s · transaction	4.70 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.06 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 10.7 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.1 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	53 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.28 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 50.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.4 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
10	bastech12.near	54 s · transaction	1.24 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.30 NEAR	none found
11	imweak.near	58 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	75 s after buying · transaction	-0.92 NEAR	pair bought within 4.2 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	hellopeace.near	59 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	22.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.76 NEAR	pair bought within 6.0 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.2 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	volat.near	66 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	48.2 min after buying · transaction	-7.92 NEAR	pair bought within 12.6 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 55.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	equalharbor5773.near	90 s · transaction	29.70 NEAR	25 s after buying · transaction	-3.78 NEAR	pair bought within 36.3 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	807c0817f8b8bc8…eefc9	2.4 min · transaction	4.70 NEAR	20.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.28 NEAR	none found
16	stepheeen.near	2.5 min · transaction	3.50 NEAR	17.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	none found
17	34a5cb274a65051…58f1e	3.5 min · transaction	6.93 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.92 NEAR	none found
18	sticky_virus5.u….near	4.8 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	52.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.73 NEAR	none found
19	tiadoyinnn.near	5.3 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	10.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.0037 NEAR	dev side received 2.70 NEAR from kuill.near (the dev), 2249.4 min before its first buy · transaction
20	mesko.near	7.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	16.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.59 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kuill.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-04 22:21 UTC	nearly.trade	lili.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-05 13:02 UTC	justhoot v1	hootrev-0916a9.launchpad.justhoot.near	0 Low retro	undefined	history: launch only
2026-10-05 21:23 UTC	nearly.trade	potato.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-09 16:37 UTC	justhoot v1	quanthoot-9a8887.launchpad.justhoot.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-11 22:53 UTC	justhoot v1	illiadance-b8e4c5.launchpad.justh….near	0 Low retro	undefined	history: launch only
2026-10-11 22:56 UTC	justhoot v1	illiadance-b1e5d7.launchpad.justh….near	0 Low retro	undefined	history: launch only
2026-10-14 00:40 UTC	nearly.trade	dogillia.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-14 14:48 UTC	justhoot v1	silentswap-553827.launchpad.justh….near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-16 17:11 UTC	nearly.trade	zearlana.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-22 13:46 UTC	justhoot v2	nearswaps.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-23 18:02 UTC	justhoot v2	illiapolos.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	10 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only