POTATO nearly.trade

potato.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 0.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 0, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch potato.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (kudd.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2525 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -4.45 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 75% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-05 21:23:32 UTC · block 218698553 · history: launch only
TransactionEaAykmUc5W7eJ…zRq5a
Creatorkuill.near explorer
Poolpotato.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 0.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:48 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-30 23:38 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-30 23:38 UTC
Price now1.01x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.77x the peak
Outside buyers in profit4 of 22 · 18.2%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 13 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1619191919
Buyers spent155.95 NEAR162.90 NEAR162.90 NEAR162.90 NEAR162.90 NEAR
Buyers net result+15.26 NEAR+0.90 NEAR+0.90 NEAR+0.74 NEAR-4.45 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.31x1.31x1.31x1.31x1.31x
Holders141919188
Top 10 holders' share96.0%96.7%96.7%97.9%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side 0.2% · 1 of 1 hold <0.01% · 1 of 1 hold <0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 5.7% · 9 of 11 hold 5.6% · 11 of 13 hold 5.5% · 10 of 13 hold
Other early buyers 5.6% · 4 of 4 hold 0.8% · 3 of 5 hold 0.8% · 3 of 5 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)11.5% · 16 wallets6.4% · 19 wallets6.3% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)88.5%93.6%93.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)96.0%96.7%97.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged99.9% · 1 merged100.0% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 9 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +0.57 NEAR none found
2 frigid_polar1.u….near 29 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR not sold +0.51 NEAR
pair bought within 58.7 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 fool_at_40.near 56 s · transaction 55.00 NEAR 4.1 min after buying · transaction +5.23 NEAR none found
4 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 74 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold -0.64 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5 a61602ebdc9b583…012fc 74 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.54 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6 c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 74 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold -0.65 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 75 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold -0.81 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 1.5 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 76 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold -0.91 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.1 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.1 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9 darknes.near 76 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 81 s after buying · transaction +0.67 NEAR
pair bought within 11.7 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 886fd94398f173c…35c2c 77 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold -1.07 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches
pair bought within 1.2 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 fd5c09668cb779b…28411 79 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold -0.94 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 4.2 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.7 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.7 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
12 alola.near 88 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.10 NEAR
pair bought within 8.8 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.4 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.0 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
13 obitoisdead.near 97 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 5.4 min after buying · transaction -0.33 NEAR
dev side received 5.00 NEAR from kuill.near (the dev), 198.7 min before its first buy · transaction
14 paper_jambologi….near 115 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 12.3 min after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR none found
15 imweak.near 2.2 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 5.0 min after buying · transaction -0.79 NEAR
pair bought within 42.7 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 0dcab0ca2c0d3dd…cb7ed 4.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 102 s after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR none found
17 godmeme.near 5.5 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold -0.05 NEAR
pair bought within 11.8 s of memexxx.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 memexxx.near 5.7 min · transaction 0.95 NEAR not sold -0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 11.8 s of godmeme.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 larksergio.tg 8.2 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR not sold -0.08 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kuill.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-04 22:21 UTC nearly.trade lili.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-05 13:02 UTC justhoot v1 hootrev-0916a9.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-09 16:37 UTC justhoot v1 quanthoot-9a8887.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-11 22:53 UTC justhoot v1 illiadance-b8e4c5.launchpad.justh….near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-11 22:56 UTC justhoot v1 illiadance-b1e5d7.launchpad.justh….near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-14 00:40 UTC nearly.trade dogillia.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 14:48 UTC justhoot v1 silentswap-553827.launchpad.justh….near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 11:45 UTC justhoot v1 baldman-027fe1.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 17:11 UTC nearly.trade zearlana.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-22 13:46 UTC justhoot v2 nearswaps.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-23 18:02 UTC justhoot v2 illiapolos.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only