LILI nearly.trade

lili.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch lili.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (kudd.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2464 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -89.22 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 33% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-04 22:21:11 UTC · block 218557602 · history: launch only
TransactionAVxPhXLRw6NAb…zuBUA
Creatorkuill.near explorer
Poollili.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-05 22:35 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-05 22:35 UTC
Price now1.09x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.28x the peak
Outside buyers in profit45 of 115 · 39.1%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 11 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)24577080113
Buyers spent361.70 NEAR1,331.32 NEAR1,727.44 NEAR2,065.58 NEAR3,122.00 NEAR
Buyers net result+101.37 NEAR+477.64 NEAR+465.77 NEAR+456.85 NEAR-89.22 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.74x2.91x3.01x3.32x3.90x
Holders2752556440
Top 10 holders' share77.1%58%58.9%54.0%89.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 9.3% · 9 of 9 hold 12.8% · 11 of 11 hold 6.5% · 4 of 11 hold
Other early buyers 14.8% · 14 of 15 hold 11.0% · 11 of 19 hold 7.2% · 11 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)24.2% · 24 wallets23.7% · 30 wallets13.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)75.8%76.3%86.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)77.1%58%54.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder91.6% · 2 merged65.3% · 2 merged54.0% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 9 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +1.79 NEAR
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2 177d0dba946d26e….near 17 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +6.14 NEAR none found
3 b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 29 s · transaction 34.84 NEAR 15.2 min after buying · transaction +12.21 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea 29 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR 15.2 min after buying · transaction +7.05 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f 29 s · transaction 18.90 NEAR 15.0 min after buying · transaction +11.37 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 29 s · transaction 18.90 NEAR 15.0 min after buying · transaction +10.94 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 ethetheth.near 62 s · transaction 80.00 NEAR 16.4 min after buying · transaction +35.90 NEAR none found
8 9a407364cc33c5a…d5d69 65 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR not sold +1.64 NEAR none found
9 batwomanear.near 68 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 7.5 min after buying · transaction +41.60 NEAR none found
10 fool_at_40.near 93 s · transaction 59.00 NEAR 5.8 min after buying · transaction +25.72 NEAR none found
11 ilikenear.near 102 s · transaction 14.20 NEAR 23.8 min after buying · transaction +11.94 NEAR none found
12 ebisidiaidi.near 104 s · transaction 330.00 NEAR 5.3 min after buying · transaction +29.07 NEAR
pair bought within 55.5 s of lambadaa.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.7 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 94feda709c301ed…63090 109 s · transaction 18.90 NEAR 14.2 min after buying · transaction +8.83 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 57b75e37532eb09…faeea 109 s · transaction 18.90 NEAR 14.2 min after buying · transaction +8.02 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 109 s · transaction 1.48 NEAR not sold +1.65 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 50.8 s of lambadaa.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.7 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16 f8a6c1815fec490…35fd8 2.6 min · transaction 3.37 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction +1.67 NEAR none found
17 lambadaa.near 2.7 min · transaction 26.00 NEAR not sold +14.59 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 50.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.5 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 tarbiaa.near 4.0 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction +9.12 NEAR none found
19 quick-rider-483….near 4.2 min · transaction 4.92 NEAR not sold +4.29 NEAR none found
20 imweak.near 4.3 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 7.9 min after buying · transaction +2.77 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kuill.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-05 13:02 UTC justhoot v1 hootrev-0916a9.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-05 21:23 UTC nearly.trade potato.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-09 16:37 UTC justhoot v1 quanthoot-9a8887.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-11 22:53 UTC justhoot v1 illiadance-b8e4c5.launchpad.justh….near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-11 22:56 UTC justhoot v1 illiadance-b1e5d7.launchpad.justh….near 0 Low retro undefined history: launch only
2026-10-14 00:40 UTC nearly.trade dogillia.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-14 14:48 UTC justhoot v1 silentswap-553827.launchpad.justh….near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 11:45 UTC justhoot v1 baldman-027fe1.launchpad.justhoot.near 0 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-16 17:11 UTC nearly.trade zearlana.nearlytrade.near 30 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-22 13:46 UTC justhoot v2 nearswaps.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-23 18:02 UTC justhoot v2 illiapolos.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 10 Low retro no rug history: launch only