nearlyhoot-d58fc1.launc….near justhoot v1

nearlyhoot-d58fc1.launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 0 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

No risk signal fired for this launch.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 25 % (816 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -76.90 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 42% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-18 16:20:54 UTC · block 220535536 · history: launch only
Transaction	BjhVmYoSPwhdU…9KCxa
Creator	dyolo.near explorer
Pool	nearlyhoot-d58fc1.launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-30 01:56 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-30 01:56 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.38x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	27 of 78 · 34.6%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 15 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	14	30	57	72	78
Buyers spent	114.42 NEAR	295.04 NEAR	885.43 NEAR	1,177.04 NEAR	1,388.61 NEAR
Buyers net result	+2.97 NEAR	+40.45 NEAR	+83.64 NEAR	+294.76 NEAR	-76.90 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.20x	1.49x	2.39x	2.58x	2.58x
Holders	10	24	37	54	14
Top 10 holders' share	100%	85.7%	76.0%	64.6%	98.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.0% · 8 of 11 hold	6.4% · 12 of 15 hold	2.2% · 9 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	2.1% · 2 of 3 hold	11.2% · 14 of 15 hold	11.4% · 12 of 15 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	8.1% · 14 wallets	17.6% · 30 wallets	13.6% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	91.9%	82.4%	86.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	85.7%	64.6%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	85.7% · 2 merged	64.6% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	1 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
2	ro52.near	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	38.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.25 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	2 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.44 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of cockis.near · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
4	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.0052 NEAR	pair bought within 1.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of cockis.near · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
5	cockis.near	8 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.43 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 6.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	js1112s.near	15 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+14.02 NEAR	pair bought within 12.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	32 s · transaction	10.54 NEAR	103 s after buying · transaction	+0.39 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches pair bought within 30.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.8 s of wrapz-z.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	0x_mert.near	33 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	not sold	+32.06 NEAR	none found
9	shikigima.near	55 s · transaction	55.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+17.05 NEAR	pair bought within 52.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of hmmmm.user.intear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.2 s of cockis.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10	hmmmm.user.intear.near	56 s · transaction	19.80 NEAR	27.4 min after buying · transaction	+13.82 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 52.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.8 s of cockis.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	quick-rider-483….near	2.5 min · transaction	1.97 NEAR	not sold	+2.21 NEAR	pair bought within 3.7 s of 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f	2.6 min · transaction	31.18 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.44 NEAR	pair bought within 3.7 s of quick-rider-483….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	807c0817f8b8bc8…eefc9	2.6 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.24 NEAR	none found
14	unlucky_gpu.use….near	2.9 min · transaction	0.20 NEAR	not sold	+0.21 NEAR	none found
15	ktxxfauzy.near	5.8 min · transaction	18.98 NEAR	not sold	+19.30 NEAR	none found
16	futureis.user.i….near	6.5 min · transaction	55.44 NEAR	19.6 min after buying · transaction	+26.17 NEAR	none found
17	toxic_parasite.….near	9.9 min · transaction	9.90 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	+4.59 NEAR	none found
18	wmax.near	10.3 min · transaction	10.54 NEAR	16.1 min after buying · transaction	+5.71 NEAR	none found
19	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	11.2 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	8.1 min after buying · transaction	+2.78 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 22.8 s of h2onear.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	h2onear.near	11.6 min · transaction	5.90 NEAR	8.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.85 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 22.8 s of ddd677c8455ff08…63c01 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of dyolo.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-27 10:39 UTC	justhoot v2	ironclaw.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-11-10 01:32 UTC	justhoot v2	sinu-2.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	5 Low	no rug	live