NEARLYMSG nearly.trade

nearlymsg.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch nearlymsg.nearlyt….near

The largest funder's (nearmsg.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2093 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -3.83 NEAR · insiders' net result: +6.36 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 84% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-02 12:57:18 UTC · block 218205985 · history: launch only
TransactionEcTNaCdbzJHPx…krYaX
Creatornearlymsg.near explorer
Poolnearlymsg.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-05 23:26 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-05 23:26 UTC
Price now0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.68x the peak
Outside buyers in profit10 of 20 · 50%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 14 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1418181819
Buyers spent187.90 NEAR236.95 NEAR236.95 NEAR236.95 NEAR249.15 NEAR
Buyers net result+18.99 NEAR+7.15 NEAR+7.15 NEAR-3.87 NEAR-3.83 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+14.73 NEAR+11.41 NEAR+11.41 NEAR+6.02 NEAR+6.36 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.30x1.32x1.32x1.32x1.32x
Holders13111189
Top 10 holders' share99.0%100.0%100.0%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 4.1% · holds 4.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — 2.5% · 1 of 1 hold 2.5% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 9.9% · 10 of 12 hold 4.7% · 7 of 14 hold 0.5% · 4 of 14 hold
Other early buyers 2.5% · 2 of 2 hold 2.5% · 2 of 3 hold 2.5% · 2 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)12.5% · 14 wallets9.7% · 18 wallets5.5% · 18 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)83.6%86.2%90.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.0%100.0%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 3 merged100% · 3 merged100% · 2 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 18 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 neverekt.near 29 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 52.4 min after buying · transaction +0.22 NEAR
pair bought within 13.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.1 s of alola.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 37 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +5.00 NEAR
pair bought within 48.0 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
3 3347dd8076331ad…52407 42 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 13.3 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.8 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4 e8a162641a55288…58210 48 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +0.16 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 36.8 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5 fiery_spire1.us….near 54 s · transaction 0.20 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 31.1 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 js1112s.near 57 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 8.9 min after buying · transaction +0.60 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches
pair bought within 28.0 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.2 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 80289da0a50f047…d6989 61 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 49.5 min after buying · transaction +0.52 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 23.8 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.2 s of js1112s.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8 sessssssssss.near 68 s · transaction 13.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 16.9 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9 alola.near 85 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.2 min after buying · transaction +0.0070 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 36.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.0 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10 marcoalex.near 101 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +0.08 NEAR none found
11 equalharbor5773.near 118 s · transaction 29.70 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction -0.55 NEAR
pair bought within 33.7 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.3 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.1 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12 b8185e452876272…dff87 2.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.13 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches
pair bought within 37.0 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
13 5249d63913e1405…591d1 2.0 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction -0.78 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
pair bought within 55.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.8 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.1 s of equalharbor5773.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14 opti_hotwallet.near 4.4 min · transaction 35.00 NEAR not sold -5.35 NEAR none found
15 xhung1984.near 5.1 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.17 NEAR none found
16 nearlymsgtreasury.near 6.4 min · transaction 35.00 NEAR not sold -3.42 NEAR
dev side received 7.50 NEAR from nearlymsg.near (the dev), 99.8 min before its first buy · transaction
17 cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 9.1 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 20 s after buying · transaction -0.19 NEAR
pair bought within 9.0 s of ultra-dolphin-7….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 ultra-dolphin-7….near 9.2 min · transaction 0.10 NEAR not sold -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 9.0 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearlymsg.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-02 12:31 UTC nearly.trade testy.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only