In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (434 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +155.49 NEAR · insiders' net result: +35.10 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 48% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 17:39:05 UTC · block 217663326 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-03 11:53 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-03 11:53 UTC
Price now
1.12x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.22x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
42 of 160 · 26.2%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 13 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
17
44
83
93
152
Buyers spent
355.62 NEAR
1,159.73 NEAR
2,207.21 NEAR
2,453.60 NEAR
3,751.27 NEAR
Buyers net result
+105.81 NEAR
+674.42 NEAR
+999.79 NEAR
+198.77 NEAR
+155.49 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+17.81 NEAR
+54.26 NEAR
+71.64 NEAR
+33.39 NEAR
+35.10 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.77x
3.48x
5.20x
5.20x
5.20x
Holders
19
43
58
48
68
Top 10 holders' share
80.0%
56.9%
48.7%
67.8%
53.8%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
2.1% · holds
2.1% · holds
2.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
6.6% · 7 of 7 hold
4.1% · 10 of 13 hold
0.6% · 2 of 13 hold
Other early buyers
17.5% · 10 of 10 hold
30% · 17 of 17 hold
19.4% · 11 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
24.1% · 17 wallets
34.1% · 30 wallets
20.0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
73.8%
63.8%
77.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
80.0%
56.9%
67.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
87.4% · 1 merged
58.4% · 2 merged
67.8% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.