NEARMINGO nearly.trade

nearmingo.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nearmingo.nearlyt….near

The largest funder's (ardecrouz.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (302 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 91 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 107.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 316f9567cfacb6bc70b18…df0c1 (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 13:21:03 UTC, 83.2 min after the launch: CrK9QsCSFGLvP…1qT4p.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -2.49 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.19 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 91% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 11:57:51 UTC · block 217628897 · history: launch only
TransactionBrWSW7PrVFmB7…K3e3k
Creator316f9567cfacb6bc70b181cb9a01787c7c66914bc459246a0c14a969839df0c1 explorer
Poolnearmingo.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy6.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-29 05:50 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 05:50 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.91x the peak
Outside buyers in profit1 of 6 · 16.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 2 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%107.3%
Dev's first sell after launch————83.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)55556
Buyers spent44.48 NEAR44.48 NEAR44.48 NEAR44.48 NEAR64.48 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.27 NEAR-1.71 NEAR-1.71 NEAR-1.71 NEAR-2.49 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%107.3%
Insiders' net result+0.36 NEAR-0.12 NEAR-0.12 NEAR-0.12 NEAR+0.19 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.05x1.05x1.05x1.05x1.05x
Holders62445
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.6% · holds 0.6% · holds 0.6% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.0% · 1 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
Other early buyers 3.1% · 3 of 3 hold 0% · 0 of 3 hold 0% · 0 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)3.1% · 5 wallets0% · 5 wallets0% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)96.3%99.4%99.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 x0xdead.near 28 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 64 s after buying · transaction +0.17 NEAR
pair bought within 3.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 31 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 8.0 min after buying · transaction -0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 3.0 s of x0xdead.near · 88 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 coolnook7072.near 72 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction -1.49 NEAR none found
4 smallrice2186.near 93 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 6.7 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR none found
5 barrey.near 2.7 min · transaction 2.98 NEAR 10.6 min after buying · transaction -0.28 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 316f9567cfacb6bc70b18…df0c1

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-28 05:36 UTC nearly.trade nstr.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-10-01 08:11 UTC nearly.trade frog-2.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro no rug history: launch only