NEARSPAD nearly.trade

nearspad.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nearspad.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 2 % (245 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. outside buyers' net result +55.10 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 27 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 122.6% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: nearstockpad.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 11:10:39 UTC, 38.8 min after the launch: 3AH8ADVZ2Hgfp…LbyFq.
Outside buyers' net result: -241.68 NEAR · insiders' net result: +95.32 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 27% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 10:31:49 UTC · block 217620233 · history: launch only
Transaction	GttMFP2ecN6db…or3Zt
Creator	nearstockpad.near explorer
Pool	nearspad.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-14 07:56 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-14 07:56 UTC
Price now	1.00x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.26x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	50 of 181 · 27.6%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	122.6%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	38.8 min	38.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	20	27	42	156	179
Buyers spent	351.05 NEAR	590.96 NEAR	1,033.70 NEAR	2,845.34 NEAR	3,179.32 NEAR
Buyers net result	+27.62 NEAR	+92.37 NEAR	+259.57 NEAR	+55.10 NEAR	-241.68 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	122.6%
Insiders' net result	+18.27 NEAR	+32.26 NEAR	+55.78 NEAR	+87.94 NEAR	+95.32 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.43x	1.77x	2.49x	3.89x	3.89x
Holders	17	21	32	75	50
Top 10 holders' share	97.0%	87.7%	73.0%	75.0%	94.3%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.7% · holds	3.7% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.1% · 8 of 11 hold	4.7% · 7 of 11 hold	1.4% · 3 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	10.5% · 7 of 9 hold	19.1% · 12 of 16 hold	3.8% · 4 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	16.6% · 20 wallets	23.8% · 27 wallets	5.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	79.8%	72.5%	94.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	97.0%	87.7%	75.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.8% · 1 merged	87.7% · 1 merged	75.0% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	31.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.93 NEAR	pair bought within 16.5 s of d0tz.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	d0tz.near	38 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	+23.20 NEAR	pair bought within 16.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.6 s of kimpet77.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.4 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	hardroom2708.near	65 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	+3.64 NEAR	none found
4	greae.near	65 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+3.31 NEAR	none found
5	kimpet77.near	91 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	5.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.84 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 32.8 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.5 s of coolnook7072.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.6 s of d0tz.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6	1abb937e7aebae7…3416e	98 s · transaction	35.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.40 NEAR	pair bought within 6.8 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.9 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.7 s of coolnook7072.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	aceng03.near	2.1 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.32 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 5.7 s of coolnook7072.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.8 s of kimpet77.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.3 s of barrey.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	gusri.near	2.1 min · transaction	34.82 NEAR	109 s after buying · transaction	-3.09 NEAR	pair bought within 47.9 s of 22eff1598b71a3e…5250a · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.6 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.5 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	coolnook7072.near	2.1 min · transaction	135.00 NEAR	84 s after buying · transaction	-5.74 NEAR	pair bought within 5.7 s of aceng03.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.5 s of kimpet77.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.7 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10	stonkfun.near	2.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.34 NEAR	none found
11	panjipetualang.near	2.9 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	16.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.17 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 50.6 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.1 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12	22eff1598b71a3e…5250a	2.9 min · transaction	4.98 NEAR	39.6 min after buying · transaction	+2.18 NEAR	pair bought within 47.9 s of gusri.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.4 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	barrey.near	3.0 min · transaction	2.49 NEAR	50.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.66 NEAR	pair bought within 54.3 s of aceng03.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of panjipetualang.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.3 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	c9ac6891d3a1a65…fbca9	3.1 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.02 NEAR	none found
15	lowlibrary565.near	3.3 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	7.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.11 NEAR	none found
16	badriansyahirwa….near	3.4 min · transaction	0.20 NEAR	not sold	+0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 26.3 s of barrey.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.1 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	arnkrnfh.near	3.9 min · transaction	40.00 NEAR	42.0 min after buying · transaction	+43.47 NEAR	none found
18	longbank4854.near	4.2 min · transaction	65.00 NEAR	15.3 min after buying · transaction	+9.49 NEAR	none found
19	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	4.6 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	14.3 min after buying · transaction	+2.84 NEAR	none found
20	supremegay.near	4.9 min · transaction	88.56 NEAR	37.3 min after buying · transaction	+14.93 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearstockpad.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-12 07:45 UTC	nearly.trade	airadio.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-15 03:22 UTC	nearly.trade	pghood.nearlytrade.near	80 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-19 21:26 UTC	justhoot v2	nearspad.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	60 High retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-19 21:34 UTC	nearly.trade	nearspad-2.nearlytrade.near	85 High retro	no rug	history: launch only