NEARSTOCKS nearly.trade

nearstocks.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch nearstocks.nearly….near
+10
Received 5.00 NEAR 44 min before the launch from soonlynx2580.near, whose earlier launch mochi.nearlytrade.near (made by mochionnear.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 785jVvVCVng925QwR…UFSYJ, launch mochi.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2744 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -25.71 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.13 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 52% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-09 17:19:40 UTC · block 219260021 · history: launch only
Transaction	3YeEfTc2VGsM4…23YbD
Creator	sickgarden7859.near explorer
Pool	nearstocks.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	1.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-07 15:11 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-07 15:11 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.51x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	10 of 60 · 16.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	13	13	15	53
Buyers spent	81.87 NEAR	81.87 NEAR	81.87 NEAR	136.67 NEAR	728.27 NEAR
Buyers net result	-2.75 NEAR	-2.97 NEAR	-3.01 NEAR	-1.19 NEAR	-25.71 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+0.0057 NEAR	-0.0097 NEAR	-0.01 NEAR	+0.34 NEAR	-0.13 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x	1.13x	1.95x
Holders	5	4	3	7	19
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	93.5%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.1% · holds	0.1% · holds	0.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	3.2% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.7% · 3 of 11 hold	0.7% · 3 of 11 hold	0.5% · 1 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	0.4% · 1 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold	1.7% · 1 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	1.1% · 13 wallets	0.7% · 13 wallets	5.4% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	98.8%	99.2%	94.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.45 NEAR	pair bought within 32.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.1 s of alola.near · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.1 s of hooting.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
2	hooting.near	24 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	19.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 18.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 97 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.1 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.0 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	32 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	+0.58 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
4	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	33 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	+0.29 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	94feda709c301ed…63090	33 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	-0.35 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	33 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	-0.60 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	33 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	108 s after buying · transaction	-0.48 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	33 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	107 s after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	34 s · transaction	8.42 NEAR	106 s after buying · transaction	-0.61 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	42 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	114 s after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 32.5 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of hooting.near · 97 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
11	alola.near	43 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.1 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.0 s of hooting.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	e61312b0b15a928…26dd1	48 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.69 NEAR	none found
13	bb69606c2ee37dd…1ad9a	3.4 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	85 s after buying · transaction	-0.39 NEAR	none found
14	bearonnear.near	37.9 min · transaction	35.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.47 NEAR	dev side received 50.00 NEAR from quantusinu.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 2401.9 min before its first buy · transaction
15	satirexxx.near	46.7 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	not sold	-0.20 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of sickgarden7859.near

None known.