NEARSY nearly.trade

nearsy.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 40.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 4000).
Evidence: launch nearsy.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (805 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 9.86 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearsyxyz.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-17 10:31:13 UTC, 22.7 min after the launch: 9BZmvQR3PP3Dj…fzTr6.
Outside buyers' net result: -9.86 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.69 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-17 10:08:32 UTC · block 220353238 · history: launch only
Transaction	GnoFx2tYCvYXb…NSynL
Creator	nearsyxyz.near explorer
Pool	nearsy.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 40.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-21 16:04 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-21 16:04 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.75x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	3 of 13 · 23.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 10 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	101.8%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	22.7 min	22.7 min	22.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	13	13	13	13
Buyers spent	114.60 NEAR	117.57 NEAR	117.57 NEAR	117.57 NEAR	117.57 NEAR
Buyers net result	+7.11 NEAR	+9.61 NEAR	-9.48 NEAR	-9.86 NEAR	-11.78 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	101.8%
Insiders' net result	+8.47 NEAR	+9.50 NEAR	+2.69 NEAR	+2.69 NEAR	+3.35 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.29x	1.32x	1.32x	1.32x	1.32x
Holders	11	13	6	3	4
Top 10 holders' share	99.4%	98.2%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.6% · holds	3.6% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.9% · 9 of 10 hold	6.9% · 9 of 10 hold	3.2% · 2 of 10 hold
Other early buyers	2.2% · 1 of 1 hold	2.4% · 3 of 3 hold	0.1% · 1 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	9.1% · 11 wallets	9.3% · 13 wallets	3.4% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	87.2%	87.0%	96.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.4%	98.2%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	29.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	40.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
4	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	19.42 NEAR	not sold	-1.29 NEAR	pair bought within 1.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5	ro52.near	5 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	10 s after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 1.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
6	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	19 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	32.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.20 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 20.8 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	25 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	15.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.79 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 15.0 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	axxe.near	32 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-2.99 NEAR	pair bought within 6.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.4 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	40 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 36.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	e8a162641a55288…58210	42 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	14.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.08 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 38.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 100 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	p0tz.near	3.2 min · transaction	29.70 NEAR	19.9 min after buying · transaction	-5.51 NEAR	none found
12	memexxx.near	5.9 min · transaction	0.97 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	none found
13	07c4f546ac45df7…72216	7.4 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.43 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearsyxyz.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-17 10:34 UTC	justhoot v1	nearsy-578076.launchpad.justhoot.near	5 Low retro	undefined	history: launch only
2026-10-17 10:39 UTC	nearly.trade	nearsy-2.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-17 10:44 UTC	nearly.trade	nearsy-3.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-17 10:47 UTC	nearly.trade	nearsy-4.nearlytrade.near	25 Low retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-17 11:02 UTC	nearly.trade	nearsy-5.nearlytrade.near	5 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only