NEART nearly.trade

neart-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch neart-2.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'neart' was already used 59.7 h earlier by another creator (neart.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch neart.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1579 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 27 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 167.7% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 19efc05739d556b7aac07…d376c (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 13:56:33 UTC, 787.5 min after the launch: 2ojKL6APEonaZ…uwPT2.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -232.68 NEAR · insiders' net result: +15.40 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 27% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 00:49:05 UTC · block 217990009 · history: launch only
TransactionAcWgyoarDvMMZ…Kb8NC
Creator19efc05739d556b7aac07c8103363a4e9d4afb52c1764027ea934622f7ad376c explorer
Poolneart-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy10.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-31 17:34 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-31 17:34 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.26x the peak
Outside buyers in profit47 of 144 · 32.6%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 20 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%167.7%
Dev's first sell after launch————787.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)45647584144
Buyers spent807.86 NEAR1,207.45 NEAR1,714.82 NEAR1,998.52 NEAR2,989.72 NEAR
Buyers net result+165.32 NEAR+428.14 NEAR+367.27 NEAR+473.03 NEAR-232.68 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%167.7%
Insiders' net result+10.27 NEAR+17.76 NEAR+16.76 NEAR+19.51 NEAR+15.40 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.42x2.72x3.07x3.07x3.72x
Holders3756585933
Top 10 holders' share58.1%49.5%46.4%44%84.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.9% · holds 0.9% · holds 0.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 11.9% · 13 of 20 hold 12.9% · 15 of 20 hold 5.7% · 8 of 20 hold
Other early buyers 11.1% · 10 of 10 hold 11.1% · 10 of 10 hold 11.1% · 10 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)22.9% · 30 wallets24.0% · 30 wallets16.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)76.1%75.1%82.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)58.1%49.5%44%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder64.1% · 3 merged56.3% · 3 merged47% · 3 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 8 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold +37.36 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 1.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 37 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2 d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b 8 s · transaction 15.00 NEAR not sold +26.62 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches
pair bought within 1.8 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 10 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +8.62 NEAR
pair bought within 1.8 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.6 s of 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.9 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
4 6a701f7eb1c3f78…07b54 10 s · transaction 0.01 NEAR not sold +0.02 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 45 of those launches
pair bought within 0.6 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 51 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.4 s of 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5 neverekt.near 23 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 110 s after buying · transaction +3.49 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches
pair bought within 13.9 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 26 s · transaction 0.99 NEAR 11.4 min after buying · transaction +1.26 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 37.5 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
7 752bac8790b3981…9b464 42 s · transaction 14.85 NEAR not sold +24.60 NEAR none found
8 8efe7d11c4b2925…8c78a 42 s · transaction 14.85 NEAR not sold +23.55 NEAR none found
9 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 47 s · transaction 80.00 NEAR 16.9 min after buying · transaction +36.06 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 16.6 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.3 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 20.9 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 11 more pairs · all pairs
10 84730cb083829b6…d761e 52 s · transaction 2.47 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction +1.51 NEAR
pair bought within 5.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.2 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11 8611accd8f87bcc…16119 58 s · transaction 14.88 NEAR not sold +20.30 NEAR none found
12 9a26995158a8ff7…85239 58 s · transaction 14.85 NEAR not sold +19.37 NEAR none found
13 d188ebc958d6d62…cfa00 58 s · transaction 29.70 NEAR not sold +26.59 NEAR none found
14 alola.near 63 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 13.0 min after buying · transaction +0.87 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 16.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 15 more pairs · all pairs
15 38fce9dd3f97944…3f09a 69 s · transaction 14.88 NEAR not sold +17.68 NEAR none found
16 9746b41510679a6…cac9b 79 s · transaction 14.85 NEAR not sold +16.86 NEAR none found
17 c28ebb8af189396…a8c13 83 s · transaction 32.01 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +3.80 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 26.8 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
18 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 83 s · transaction 32.01 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +2.90 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of alola.near · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
19 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 83 s · transaction 32.01 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +3.21 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of alola.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
20 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 83 s · transaction 32.01 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +2.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.9 s of alola.near · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 10 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 19efc05739d556b7aac07…d376c

None known.