NEARTOTE nearly.trade

neartote.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch neartote.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 24 % (810 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: euphori.near (dev).
Outside buyers' net result: -18.07 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.27 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 67% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-17 21:53:38 UTC · block 220423979 · history: launch only
Transaction	DuP6YAxyYwnEc…i39W8
Creator	euphori.near explorer
Pool	neartote.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-30 08:41 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-30 08:41 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.67x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	8 of 27 · 29.6%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	22.8 min	22.8 min	22.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	19	20	20	24	26
Buyers spent	275.05 NEAR	280.00 NEAR	280.00 NEAR	455.75 NEAR	534.13 NEAR
Buyers net result	+8.92 NEAR	-7.89 NEAR	-8.18 NEAR	-13.68 NEAR	-18.07 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+1.20 NEAR	+1.20 NEAR	+2.27 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.48x	1.48x	1.48x	1.48x	1.48x
Holders	13	4	6	7	3
Top 10 holders' share	98.0%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	3.0% · 6 of 11 hold	0.1% · 2 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	7.8% · 7 of 8 hold	0.9% · 2 of 9 hold	2.4% · 4 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	10.7% · 19 wallets	1.1% · 20 wallets	2.4% · 24 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	89.3%	99.0%	97.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	98.0%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.7% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.6 s of alola.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.6 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
3	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	20.54 NEAR	14.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.5 s of alola.near · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	ro52.near	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+0.36 NEAR	pair bought within 2.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 57 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
5	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	27 s · transaction	235.81 NEAR	104 s after buying · transaction	+9.17 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 22 of those launches pair bought within 23.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.1 s of alola.near · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	807c0817f8b8bc8…eefc9	28 s · transaction	10.30 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.26 NEAR	none found
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	31 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.33 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 22.0 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 67 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	e8a162641a55288…58210	42 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.47 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 10.6 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 45 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	ccccaaa.near	49 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	5.3 min after buying · transaction	-6.06 NEAR	none found
10	fiery_spire1.us….near	52 s · transaction	3.56 NEAR	6.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.79 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 48.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	53 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.30 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 49.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	seasam.near	66 s · transaction	19.00 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	-4.53 NEAR	none found
13	hellopeace.near	71 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.64 NEAR	pair bought within 18.2 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.3 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	49149698e58a511…953cf	99 s · transaction	2.06 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.57 NEAR	none found
15	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	108 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	62 s after buying · transaction	-0.30 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 55.3 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	quick-rider-483….near	2.2 min · transaction	2.50 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.43 NEAR	none found
17	magaji11.near	2.8 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-2.49 NEAR	none found
18	62d1b9c88f35252…f6973	2.9 min · transaction	10.33 NEAR	44.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.60 NEAR	none found
19	faveije.near	3.6 min · transaction	7.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.21 NEAR	none found
20	hybrid.user.int….near	5.3 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	119 s after buying · transaction	-0.82 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of euphori.near

None known.