117 of the 320 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 117 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 36%.
Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): the creator account was created 4 min before the launch; it received 1.40 NEAR 1 min before the launch (largest transfer from bestyard2237.near).
Received 1.40 NEAR 1 min before the launch from bestyard2237.near, whose earlier launch doomslug-3.nearlytrade.near (made by roundzip6566.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
v2r signals (weights fitted on launch history before the split date), two expert rules whose points are set by hand (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange) and the creator's fee, whose points are an expert rule too: 8 points per 1 % of the trade that goes to the creator, at most 40 (not fitted). The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 26 % (276 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -2.82 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.02 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 86% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-13T06:46 UTC with config v2l-1.
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 11:14 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.86x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
1 of 3 · 33.3%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
3
3
3
3
3
Buyers spent
71.70 NEAR
72.00 NEAR
72.00 NEAR
72.00 NEAR
72.00 NEAR
Buyers net result
+2.66 NEAR
+4.13 NEAR
-0.59 NEAR
-0.59 NEAR
-2.82 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+0.09 NEAR
+0.11 NEAR
+0.05 NEAR
+0.05 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.14x
1.14x
1.14x
1.14x
1.14x
Holders
4
4
2
2
3
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.1% · holds
0.1% · holds
0.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
3.6% · 1 of 1 hold
3.6% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
2.9% · 2 of 2 hold
2.9% · 2 of 2 hold
2.8% · 1 of 2 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
—
All early buyers (the six rows above)
6.4% · 3 wallets
6.4% · 3 wallets
2.8% · 3 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
93.5%
93.5%
97.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 3 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.