It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (155 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +49.79 NEAR · insiders' net result: -13.65 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 26% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 23:20:21 UTC · block 217551931 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:46 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-29 13:30 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-29 13:30 UTC
Price now
1.12x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.12x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
81 of 290 · 27.9%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0% · 0 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
9
10
16
25
266
Buyers spent
272.80 NEAR
290.20 NEAR
671.50 NEAR
833.50 NEAR
7,504.00 NEAR
Buyers net result
+59.52 NEAR
-14.17 NEAR
+116.29 NEAR
+246.75 NEAR
+49.79 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+13.06 NEAR
+0.16 NEAR
+20.30 NEAR
+30.10 NEAR
-13.65 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.49x
1.49x
1.79x
2.20x
9.12x
Holders
11
2
14
24
202
Top 10 holders' share
100.0%
100%
91.2%
73.5%
67.5%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
2.2% · holds
2.2% · holds
2.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
3.5% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
3.9% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
7.7% · 5 of 5 hold
0% · 0 of 5 hold
0% · 0 of 5 hold
Other early buyers
8.7% · 3 of 3 hold
0% · 0 of 4 hold
28.7% · 19 of 19 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
19.9% · 9 wallets
0% · 10 wallets
32.6% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
77.9%
97.8%
65.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100.0%
100%
73.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 2 merged
100% · 0 merged
73.5% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.