The largest funder's (5c33c6218d47e00ef229f60da78d0897e1ee9665312550b8afd5f9c7bc6957d2) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (148 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 54 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 102.2% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-27 17:48:42 UTC, 140.6 min after the launch: FGXhhcZHafgxs…nAv1c.
Outside buyers' net result: -3.81 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.46 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 54% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-27 15:28:06 UTC · block 217504227 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-29 05:20 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-09-29 05:20 UTC
Price now
0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.53x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
11 of 21 · 52.4%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 6 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
102.2%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
140.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
10
13
15
20
21
Buyers spent
179.97 NEAR
253.97 NEAR
336.96 NEAR
429.95 NEAR
433.95 NEAR
Buyers net result
+26.90 NEAR
+44.85 NEAR
+81.71 NEAR
+75.22 NEAR
-3.81 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
102.2%
Insiders' net result
+2.51 NEAR
+3.32 NEAR
+4.60 NEAR
+4.50 NEAR
+1.46 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.36x
1.47x
1.65x
1.81x
1.81x
Holders
12
14
15
17
6
Top 10 holders' share
99.9%
97.7%
97.4%
90.9%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.7% · holds
0.7% · holds
0.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
0.8% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
11.1% · 6 of 6 hold
9.9% · 5 of 6 hold
7.7% · 3 of 6 hold
Other early buyers
3.5% · 4 of 4 hold
7.7% · 7 of 7 hold
14.0% · 9 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
14.5% · 10 wallets
17.7% · 13 wallets
22.6% · 20 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
84.8%
81.7%
76.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
99.9%
97.7%
90.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100.0% · 1 merged
97.7% · 1 merged
90.9% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.