NEPE nearly.trade

nepe-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nepe-2.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'nepe' was already used 27.1 h earlier by another creator (nepe.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch nepe.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (217 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 79 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 101.0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: equalzest8190.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 11:35:45 UTC, 261.0 min after the launch: 7Z7x7PS5Fewt5…ZCES8.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -9.85 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.52 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 79% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 07:14:44 UTC · block 217600183 · history: launch only
Transaction6TJr8vMPqiq1r…8VqFQ
Creatorequalzest8190.near explorer
Poolnepe-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-02 20:12 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-02 20:12 UTC
Price now0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.79x the peak
Outside buyers in profit2 of 26 · 7.7%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%101.0%
Dev's first sell after launch————261.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2231926
Buyers spent27.00 NEAR27.00 NEAR29.00 NEAR107.79 NEAR134.27 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.29 NEAR-1.01 NEAR-0.70 NEAR+1.52 NEAR-9.85 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%101.0%
Insiders' net result+2.37 NEAR+1.34 NEAR+2.28 NEAR+6.95 NEAR+0.52 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.03x1.03x1.03x1.16x1.16x
Holders434197
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%97.0%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side 1.4% · 1 of 1 hold 1.4% · 1 of 1 hold 1.4% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers 0.9% · 1 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold 4.9% · 14 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)2.3% · 2 wallets1.4% · 2 wallets6.3% · 19 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)93.8%94.7%89.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%97.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged97.0% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 19 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 x0xdead.near 14 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction -0.29 NEAR
early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2 looseward1275.near 3.2 min · transaction 17.00 NEAR not sold +1.36 NEAR
dev side received 15.00 NEAR from equalzest8190.near (the dev), 1519.9 min before its first buy · transaction
3 colddove1971.near 29.3 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold +0.16 NEAR none found
4 aabdult25.near 30.1 min · transaction 3.50 NEAR not sold +0.27 NEAR none found
5 e4b3461a12811a4…70a4d 30.2 min · transaction 0.40 NEAR not sold +0.03 NEAR none found
6 be39ff731dfd3f6…8569c 30.9 min · transaction 3.00 NEAR not sold +0.21 NEAR none found
7 5c81a37ba015ac4…eee9b 31.9 min · transaction 17.91 NEAR not sold +0.89 NEAR none found
8 weakquiche2363.near 32.8 min · transaction 0.78 NEAR not sold +0.02 NEAR none found
9 6c931b7c2a399e9…ee631 33.2 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.03 NEAR none found
10 sweetbank1086.near 34.1 min · transaction 2.20 NEAR not sold +0.06 NEAR none found
11 38fb694f608806f…19bab 40.9 min · transaction 6.80 NEAR not sold +0.13 NEAR none found
12 fullestate9851.near 44.0 min · transaction 14.92 NEAR 9.2 min after buying · transaction -0.54 NEAR none found
13 shadowy_machine….near 44.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.01 NEAR none found
14 barrey.near 44.6 min · transaction 3.98 NEAR 7.8 min after buying · transaction -0.15 NEAR none found
15 lowlibrary565.near 45.9 min · transaction 9.20 NEAR not sold -0.31 NEAR none found
16 suhaibh.near 46.0 min · transaction 12.50 NEAR not sold -0.27 NEAR none found
17 73254b9aeb4f2e1…da6ef 46.1 min · transaction 0.10 NEAR not sold -0.0032 NEAR none found
18 70ee6a00362a4e8…b1263 46.3 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 6.5 min after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR none found
19 abunabeel45.tg 49.2 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR not sold -0.02 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of equalzest8190.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-09-23 22:22 UTC nearly.trade ninu.nearlytrade.near 0 Low retro no rug history: launch only
2026-09-27 05:52 UTC nearly.trade asteroid.nearlytrade.near 20 Low retro no rug history: launch only