NEURA nearly.trade

neura.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 90.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 9000).
Evidence: launch neura.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1711 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 21.87 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: neuradeployer.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 14:13:22 UTC, 50.5 min after the launch: EFrEgd8VEjk4s…ABod4.
Outside buyers' net result: -21.87 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.22 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 13:22:53 UTC · block 218062547 · history: launch only
Transaction	FWF7tb4WdSZ3p…EtKCf
Creator	neuradeployer.near explorer
Pool	neura.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 90.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 09:27 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	50.5 min	50.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	36	56	57	64	64
Buyers spent	574.18 NEAR	969.63 NEAR	1,040.37 NEAR	1,102.42 NEAR	1,102.42 NEAR
Buyers net result	+196.26 NEAR	+37.65 NEAR	+70.31 NEAR	-21.87 NEAR	-32.25 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+22.27 NEAR	+14.04 NEAR	+17.87 NEAR	+3.22 NEAR	+3.22 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.09x	2.30x	2.30x	2.30x	2.30x
Holders	33	33	33	18	9
Top 10 holders' share	66.5%	77.2%	74.3%	97.7%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	2.5% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	18.5% · 16 of 20 hold	7.3% · 7 of 20 hold	2.0% · 3 of 20 hold
Other early buyers	6.3% · 10 of 10 hold	5.2% · 7 of 10 hold	3.4% · 3 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	24.8% · 30 wallets	12.4% · 30 wallets	5.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	73.3%	85.1%	94.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	66.5%	77.2%	97.7%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	73.2% · 3 merged	77.9% · 2 merged	97.7% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	8 s · transaction	55.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+2.79 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 15.7 s of neverekt.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2	neverekt.near	23 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+1.08 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 25.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.7 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3	e8a162641a55288…58210	30 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+3.99 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 52.6 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	4bf3148b3f603dd…553e2	32 s · transaction	13.89 NEAR	47.5 min after buying · transaction	+5.40 NEAR	none found
5	3347dd8076331ad…52407	38 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.45 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 14.2 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	5ef2af180986e30…a04a5	43 s · transaction	59.40 NEAR	54.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.64 NEAR	pair bought within 6.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	49 s · transaction	73.12 NEAR	11.3 min after buying · transaction	-2.31 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 33.7 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.9 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7	67 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	85 s after buying · transaction	+0.79 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 16.3 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	ultra-dolphin-7….near	71 s · transaction	0.20 NEAR	84 s after buying · transaction	-0.0000 NEAR	pair bought within 14.1 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.4 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	kimpet77.near	76 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	67 s after buying · transaction	+0.31 NEAR	pair bought within 26.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	7a5226fbcaa873d…0565a	80 s · transaction	49.60 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+34.91 NEAR	none found
12	alola.near	83 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	11.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 33.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
13	cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486	85 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.25 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.1 s of ultra-dolphin-7….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.9 s of kimpet77.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
14	579b7294974b54d…30203	2.5 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+4.68 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 51.0 s of barrey.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.1 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.3 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	cadee.near	2.5 min · transaction	35.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-9.27 NEAR	none found
16	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	2.8 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	49.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.16 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 22.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.9 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	easylace5098.near	3.0 min · transaction	30.83 NEAR	not sold	-9.41 NEAR	none found
18	supremeanal.near	3.1 min · transaction	75.00 NEAR	9.1 min after buying · transaction	+2.58 NEAR	pair bought within 10.8 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	a3cb153394cd999…41e6c	3.1 min · transaction	2.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.67 NEAR	pair bought within 41.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.1 s of tobrutz.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
20	barrey.near	3.3 min · transaction	10.91 NEAR	6.6 min after buying · transaction	-1.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 51.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.9 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.7 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of neuradeployer.near

None known.