In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
The largest funder's (3477fd7cc7cb9ebfd26e69d7902ccef90316ce23323efb4ecf51e3dd65c00424) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (221 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
Rug — fast (by T+60 min).
Outside buyers lost 0.25 NEAR.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 106.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 07:46:55 UTC, 8.9 min after the launch: 14aWdf7fpT1qd…yTFB2.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.25 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 07:37:59 UTC · block 217602549 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-28 10:14 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-09-28 10:14 UTC
Price now
0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.97x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 3 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 3 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
106.0%
106.0%
106.0%
106.0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
8.9 min
8.9 min
8.9 min
8.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
3
3
3
3
3
Buyers spent
6.70 NEAR
6.70 NEAR
6.70 NEAR
6.70 NEAR
6.70 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.25 NEAR
-0.25 NEAR
-0.25 NEAR
-0.25 NEAR
-0.26 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
106.0%
106.0%
106.0%
106.0%
Insiders' net result
-0.02 NEAR
+0.01 NEAR
+0.01 NEAR
+0.01 NEAR
+0.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.01x
1.01x
1.01x
1.01x
1.01x
Holders
3
2
2
2
1
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.1% · holds
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.1% · 1 of 3 hold
0.1% · 1 of 3 hold
0.1% · 1 of 3 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
—
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0.1% · 3 wallets
0.1% · 3 wallets
0.1% · 3 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
99.8%
99.9%
99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 3 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.