In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 76.00% of it (2.280% per buy, 2.280% per sell; creator_bps 9500, platform_bps 2000).
The largest funder's (5c33c6218d47e00ef229f60da78d0897e1ee9665312550b8afd5f9c7bc6957d2) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (336 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 56 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -72.84 NEAR · insiders' net result: +62.88 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 56% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 13:33:07 UTC · block 217638534 · history: launch only
buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 95.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 11:23 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-01 11:23 UTC
Price now
0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.55x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
13 of 46 · 28.3%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 8 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 4 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
68.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
5
24
29
32
46
Buyers spent
30.50 NEAR
337.73 NEAR
430.78 NEAR
460.68 NEAR
705.55 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.72 NEAR
+83.32 NEAR
+38.46 NEAR
-23.33 NEAR
-72.84 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
—
—
—
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
+62.88 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.04x
1.68x
1.68x
1.68x
1.68x
Holders
5
24
20
16
7
Top 10 holders' share
100%
70.8%
76.5%
85.2%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
1.7% · 2 of 2 hold
5.3% · 7 of 7 hold
6% · 8 of 8 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 2 hold
1.6% · 2 of 4 hold
0% · 0 of 4 hold
Other early buyers
0.4% · 1 of 1 hold
15.1% · 13 of 13 hold
1.2% · 2 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
2.1% · 5 wallets
22.0% · 24 wallets
7.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
97.9%
78.0%
92.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
70.8%
85.2%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
70.8% · 0 merged
85.2% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.