NINU nearly.trade

ninu-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 3.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 300, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch ninu-4.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'ninu' was already used 66 min earlier by another creator (ninu-3.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch ninu-3.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (141 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Pending. The outcome is decided from the T+60 min snapshot, and from the T+24 h snapshot when the first one shows no rug.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy.

Launch

Launched2026-09-27 09:30:49 UTC · block 217468113 · history: launch only
TransactionHEGuYjHfr6d5g…VSNZR
Creator9705014be9963a60e473339c42b73aa6fb439cafe056b9717682c564efde5baa explorer
Poolninu-4.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy15.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 19:00 UTC

42 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit41 794 of 1929 outside buyers
Buy pressure100 buys 1.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak5 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity23 1 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-13 18:01 UTC
Price now11.65x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.05x the peak
Outside buyers in profit794 of 1929 · 41.2%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min1 buys (1.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour1

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev3.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 2 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

No snapshots: this launch comes from the history, and the blocks around it were not stored.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.4% · holds 1.4% · holds 1.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — 0.1% · 1 of 2 hold 0.1% · 2 of 2 hold
Other early buyers 14.9% · 13 of 13 hold 29.2% · 27 of 28 hold 18.1% · 20 of 28 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)14.9% · 13 wallets29.3% · 30 wallets18.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)83.7%69.3%80.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)94.8%46.6%41.1%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder94.8% · 0 merged46.6% · 0 merged41.1% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 5cd20099472f55b…b89d8 88 s · transaction 16.46 NEAR not sold +66.88 NEAR none found
2 66dcaa81d7dd4b1…d45d9 119 s · transaction 17.10 NEAR not sold +56.81 NEAR none found
3 f9653a5d061d329…98dec 2.3 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR not sold +95.88 NEAR none found
4 c8ef2cf4beccce9…c4409 2.7 min · transaction 3.98 NEAR 38.4 min after buying · transaction +13.64 NEAR none found
5 57c25e5e55720f6…759e4 3.3 min · transaction 13.00 NEAR not sold +46.48 NEAR none found
6 chaotic_anomaly….near 3.3 min · transaction 0.38 NEAR 18.9 min after buying · transaction +0.50 NEAR none found
7 gusri.near 3.4 min · transaction 39.00 NEAR 29.4 min after buying · transaction +128.05 NEAR none found
8 bettearbot.user….near 3.5 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 31.6 min after buying · transaction +158.99 NEAR none found
9 shikigima.near 4.4 min · transaction 16.00 NEAR not sold +38.35 NEAR none found
10 buymorerhea.near 4.5 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 17.2 min after buying · transaction +53.51 NEAR none found
11 ultrakool.near 4.5 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 34.5 min after buying · transaction +86.10 NEAR none found
12 116811.near 4.9 min · transaction 79.75 NEAR 26.3 min after buying · transaction +106.16 NEAR none found
13 ozerr169.near 5.0 min · transaction 16.93 NEAR not sold +5.41 NEAR none found
14 juicepilado.use….near 5.3 min · transaction 24.99 NEAR not sold +55.36 NEAR none found
15 aiml.near 5.4 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR not sold +62.54 NEAR none found
16 huuchita.near 5.6 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR 9.0 min after buying · transaction +3.67 NEAR
pair bought within 55.7 s of 495d3af763bd9b3…f8cd2 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
17 testrunner.near 5.7 min · transaction 12.00 NEAR 34.4 min after buying · transaction +21.37 NEAR none found
18 primeyen.near 5.8 min · transaction 9.95 NEAR not sold +23.41 NEAR none found
19 toxic_parasite.….near 5.9 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR 9.4 min after buying · transaction +3.20 NEAR none found
20 590aa71e92882b5…59303 6.0 min · transaction 0.80 NEAR not sold +1.84 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 9705014be9963a60e4733…e5baa

None known.