It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2486 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +254.70 NEAR · insiders' net result: +12.19 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 75% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-05 11:06:16 UTC · block 218635483 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-31 00:03 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-31 00:03 UTC
Price now
1.10x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.33x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
52 of 170 · 30.6%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 12 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
18
35
65
89
151
Buyers spent
277.14 NEAR
546.59 NEAR
1,097.11 NEAR
1,705.24 NEAR
3,069.45 NEAR
Buyers net result
+39.47 NEAR
+184.99 NEAR
+301.98 NEAR
+427.84 NEAR
+254.70 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+3.62 NEAR
+8.41 NEAR
+11.51 NEAR
+14.50 NEAR
+12.19 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.45x
2.05x
3.36x
3.36x
3.36x
Holders
18
37
59
74
91
Top 10 holders' share
86.3%
65.1%
50.1%
46.4%
54.2%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.8% · holds
0.8% · holds
0.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
11.2% · 8 of 9 hold
10.0% · 10 of 12 hold
4.0% · 7 of 12 hold
Other early buyers
6.8% · 9 of 9 hold
17.5% · 18 of 18 hold
13.9% · 14 of 18 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
17.9% · 18 wallets
27.6% · 30 wallets
17.9% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
81.3%
71.7%
81.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
86.3%
65.1%
46.4%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
91.9% · 2 merged
69.6% · 2 merged
46.4% · 2 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.