NL nearly.trade

nl.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nl.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (15617face8d97e45fb8a911a751a8ee509e2ac16a95299dbd2b47cfe65eadb88) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1678 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 26.13 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 104.8% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearlabtrade.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 11:42:49 UTC, 5.7 min after the launch: DA3oMJ6ceXh16…GJo54.
Outside buyers' net result: -26.13 NEAR · insiders' net result: +9.50 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-01 11:37:09 UTC · block 218053567 · history: launch only
Transaction	4EBEDWLfR9QX4…R8MTt
Creator	nearlabtrade.near explorer
Pool	nl.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	42.51 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-01 23:23 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	104.8%	104.8%	104.8%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	5.7 min	5.7 min	5.7 min	5.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	26	26	26	26
Buyers spent	125.80 NEAR	474.24 NEAR	474.24 NEAR	474.24 NEAR	474.24 NEAR
Buyers net result	+9.66 NEAR	-6.30 NEAR	-25.64 NEAR	-26.13 NEAR	-30.55 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	104.8%	104.8%	104.8%
Insiders' net result	+10.74 NEAR	+7.31 NEAR	+9.50 NEAR	+9.50 NEAR	+9.50 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.21x	1.65x	1.65x	1.65x	1.65x
Holders	19	17	10	11	5
Top 10 holders' share	91.5%	97.4%	100%	100.0%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	3.9% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	8.0% · 15 of 15 hold	2.3% · 9 of 15 hold	1.8% · 5 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	1.9% · 3 of 3 hold	10.8% · 8 of 11 hold	6.3% · 4 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	9.9% · 18 wallets	13.1% · 26 wallets	8.1% · 26 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	86.2%	86.8%	91.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	91.5%	97.4%	100.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.9% · 2 merged	98.6% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b	9 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.59 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 95 of those launches pair bought within 2.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.0 s of neverekt.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
2	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	11 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 2.3 s of d57878e9a3a7c41…03d5b · 122 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.7 s of neverekt.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3	oliut100.near	16 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.34 NEAR	pair bought within 11.7 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.9 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	3347dd8076331ad…52407	24 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	5.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.0093 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
5	neverekt.near	24 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	16.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.24 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 12.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
6	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	26 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	not sold	-0.01 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 17.3 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
7	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	27 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	5.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.35 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 16.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
8	samidbangkit.near	29 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 11.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.7 s of neverekt.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	41 s · transaction	38.40 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	+5.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 2.6 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
10	84730cb083829b6…d761e	42 s · transaction	2.48 NEAR	21.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
11	920b3a669f9f318…ce387	42 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 3.9 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.3 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	alola.near	44 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	22.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 2.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
13	sessssssssss.near	46 s · transaction	16.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.62 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 2.6 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
14	b8185e452876272…dff87	59 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	42.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 15.8 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
15	e8a162641a55288…58210	59 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.52 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 15.8 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.7 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
16	889912.near	97 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.61 NEAR	none found
17	33bd7e2867fbf99…991b5	98 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	none found
18	118d7adc4e587b9…5cfdd	3.8 min · transaction	19.80 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	-1.79 NEAR	none found
19	kashekee.near	5.7 min · transaction	80.00 NEAR	not sold	-9.15 NEAR	none found
20	ultra-dolphin-7….near	7.4 min · transaction	0.30 NEAR	10.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearlabtrade.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-15 03:14 UTC	nearly.trade	bunker-2.nearlytrade.near	50 Elevated retro	rug	history: launch only
2026-10-22 12:12 UTC	justhoot v2	planet.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	60 High retro	rug	history: launch only