NNN nearly.trade

nnn-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nnn-2.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'nnn' was already used 45.8 h earlier by another creator (nnn.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch nnn.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1174 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 40 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 375.0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: knickkn0ck.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 18:57:02 UTC, 96.4 min after the launch: BpFoiXUWzbm3F…yrSEu.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -61.51 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.36 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 40% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 17:20:39 UTC · block 217806197 · history: launch only
Transaction9WvNkKsNePDP5…F46Fv
Creatorknickkn0ck.near explorer
Poolnnn-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy1.70 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-30 07:14 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-30 07:14 UTC
Price now0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.40x the peak
Outside buyers in profit15 of 33 · 45.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 18 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%375.0%
Dev's first sell after launch————96.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1517333333
Buyers spent249.78 NEAR404.78 NEAR1,127.22 NEAR1,127.22 NEAR1,127.22 NEAR
Buyers net result+2.08 NEAR+6.23 NEAR+39.24 NEAR-61.50 NEAR-61.51 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%375.0%
Insiders' net result+0.36 NEAR+0.52 NEAR+1.14 NEAR+0.02 NEAR+4.36 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.43x1.43x2.32x2.32x2.32x
Holders8111354
Top 10 holders' share100%100.0%99.2%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.2% · holds 0.2% · holds 0.2% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 8.3% · 6 of 15 hold 10.0% · 7 of 15 hold 0.0% · 1 of 18 hold
Other early buyers — 3.4% · 2 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)8.3% · 15 wallets13.4% · 17 wallets0.0% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)91.6%86.4%99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100.0%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 supremegay.near 55 s · transaction 59.52 NEAR 19.6 min after buying · transaction +43.68 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 7.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 3347dd8076331ad…52407 62 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.2 min after buying · transaction +0.42 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 7.8 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 louduser4868.near 2.5 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 101 s after buying · transaction +10.92 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches
pair bought within 1.1 s of meteorrrr.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.4 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.5 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4 meteorrrr.near 2.5 min · transaction 18.00 NEAR 107 s after buying · transaction +7.95 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 1.1 s of louduser4868.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.1 s of office57.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5 luckyfrog8326.near 2.6 min · transaction 170.00 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +8.74 NEAR
pair bought within 27.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.5 s of louduser4868.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6 office57.near 2.7 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 91 s after buying · transaction +4.80 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 11.1 s of meteorrrr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.2 s of louduser4868.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.8 s of luckyfrog8326.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 2.8 min · transaction 12.06 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction +0.50 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 2.8 min · transaction 12.06 NEAR 94 s after buying · transaction -0.19 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 2.8 min · transaction 12.06 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction +0.49 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 2.8 min · transaction 12.06 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction -0.0059 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11 alola.near 3.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 18.8 min after buying · transaction +0.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 8.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.6 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.6 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12 579b7294974b54d…30203 3.0 min · transaction 21.00 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction -3.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 5.3 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.9 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
13 stonkfun.near 3.3 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction -1.18 NEAR
pair bought within 18.4 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 missoralways.near 3.6 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction -5.84 NEAR
pair bought within 33.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 65f4b6882bc1d56…5fc6b 3.8 min · transaction 140.00 NEAR 41 s after buying · transaction -6.09 NEAR
pair bought within 48.3 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 lorenzo18.near 12.9 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR 7.8 min after buying · transaction +9.03 NEAR none found
17 1122233413123.near 14.2 min · transaction 90.00 NEAR 5.8 min after buying · transaction +13.70 NEAR none found
18 snuffdog.near 15.0 min · transaction 9.92 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction +0.46 NEAR
pair bought within 29.9 s of pajet.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 pajet.near 15.5 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 21.4 min after buying · transaction -12.23 NEAR
pair bought within 35.8 s of wolfgangamadeus.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 29.9 s of snuffdog.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 darknes.near 15.7 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +0.11 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of knickkn0ck.near

None known.