NOMO nearly.trade

nomo.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nomo.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 18 % (1316 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: +38510.86 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2050.96 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 41% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 23:00:23 UTC · block 217839370 · history: launch only
Transaction6jDKhHFK8WLxq…bxaEa
Creatoropenflour2217.near explorer
Poolnomo.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 17:47 UTC

7 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit27 142 of 522 outside buyers
Buy pressure0 buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak2 the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity0 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-12 18:32 UTC
Price now2.40x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.02x the peak
Outside buyers in profit142 of 522 · 27.2%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 9 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)14276186234
Buyers spent841.36 NEAR1,831.52 NEAR1,895.82 NEAR6,734.78 NEAR26,112.16 NEAR
Buyers net result+480.21 NEAR+2,345.48 NEAR+1,901.75 NEAR+18,207.10 NEAR+38,510.86 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+80.44 NEAR+228.48 NEAR+198.22 NEAR+1,109.24 NEAR+2,050.96 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer3.31x6.88x6.88x30.88x131.39x
Holders14285576153
Top 10 holders' share99.8%98.4%98.2%71.9%52.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 4.1% · 9 of 9 hold 4.1% · 9 of 9 hold 1.4% · 7 of 9 hold
Other early buyers 34.6% · 3 of 5 hold 53.6% · 15 of 18 hold 54.8% · 12 of 21 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)38.7% · 14 wallets57.7% · 27 wallets56.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)57.4%38.4%39.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.8%98.4%71.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder99.9% · 1 merged98.6% · 1 merged71.9% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 dcd0f130058c370…2096f 22 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +27.35 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
2 f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 22 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 35.8 min after buying · transaction +48.70 NEAR
pair bought within 2.3 s of db9077fc36538dd…6c79b · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
3 db9077fc36538dd…6c79b 24 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 44.1 min after buying · transaction +468.36 NEAR
pair bought within 2.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of dcd0f130058c370…2096f · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 38 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 78 s after buying · transaction +30.81 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 42.6 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.7 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5 dreadful.near 52 s · transaction 24.75 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction +39.95 NEAR none found
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 57 s · transaction 35.21 NEAR 3.6 min after buying · transaction +139.71 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 23.8 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7 samidbangkit.near 66 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 55 s after buying · transaction +11.65 NEAR
pair bought within 9.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 44.5 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8 hugedish6397.near 70 s · transaction 498.00 NEAR not sold +7,580.23 NEAR none found
9 alola.near 81 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 98 s after buying · transaction +6.44 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 23.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 59.3 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10 poorwheat7457.near 2.7 min · transaction 980.00 NEAR not sold +5,771.66 NEAR none found
11 cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 3.2 min · transaction 29.70 NEAR 12.9 min after buying · transaction +18.96 NEAR
pair bought within 53.7 s of damiano1.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 46d73ac6b755fff…7dd32 3.4 min · transaction 125.00 NEAR 40 s after buying · transaction -6.90 NEAR none found
13 damiano1.near 4.1 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 54.1 min after buying · transaction +7.60 NEAR
pair bought within 53.7 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 volat.near 4.6 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 3.7 min after buying · transaction +21.23 NEAR none found
15 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 5.8 min · transaction 200.00 NEAR 9.6 min after buying · transaction +113.53 NEAR none found
16 monkeprivet.near 6.8 min · transaction 3.50 NEAR 8.7 min after buying · transaction +1.31 NEAR none found
17 ruyden.near 8.1 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 7.1 min after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR none found
18 98ddb6d4c02b88b…78bda 8.2 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR 8.0 min after buying · transaction +0.06 NEAR none found
19 0xa9798a5d08cf7…fc1af 8.9 min · transaction 30.00 NEAR not sold +98.94 NEAR none found
20 68f14e7a226398a…88170 8.9 min · transaction 18.85 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction +27.03 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of openflour2217.near

None known.