NPEPE nearly.trade

npepe-6.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 50.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 5000).
Evidence: launch npepe-6.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'npepe' was already used 20.9 h earlier by another creator (npepe-5.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch npepe-5.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1135 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Undefined. The insiders sold tokens into the pool, but their sold share does not exist for this launch (they acquired nothing through it), so we cannot say how much of their holding they sold: the outside buyers lost money, but "rug" or "no rug" is not stated. It is not counted in any rate.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: rootpepe.near (dev).
Received tokens from the dev: root.near.
Outside buyers' net result: -11.69 NEAR · insiders' net result: +37.83 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 67% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 16:12:31 UTC · block 217799317 · history: launch only
Transaction	DSw8vxoaMfyom…MtCnc
Creator	rootpepe.near explorer
Pool	npepe-6.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	43.37 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-30 08:52 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	17.8 min	17.8 min	17.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	13	13	13	13
Buyers spent	201.13 NEAR	201.63 NEAR	201.63 NEAR	201.63 NEAR	201.63 NEAR
Buyers net result	-8.90 NEAR	-10.05 NEAR	-11.69 NEAR	-11.69 NEAR	-11.69 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	2	2	2	2	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+36.72 NEAR	+36.72 NEAR	+37.83 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x	1.36x
Holders	8	5	2	2	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	0.5% · 1 of 1 hold	0.5% · 1 of 1 hold	0.5% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.8% · 4 of 11 hold	1.4% · 2 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	0.4% · 1 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.2% · 13 wallets	1.4% · 13 wallets	0% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.2%	98.1%	99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	27 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	114 s after buying · transaction	+0.58 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 35.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.9 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2	00867ad7c43fe5a…cdd9c	27 s · transaction	59.40 NEAR	2.3 min after buying · transaction	+8.17 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	e8a162641a55288…58210	44 s · transaction	8.00 NEAR	104 s after buying · transaction	+1.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 17.5 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.4 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.1 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c	61 s · transaction	0.10 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 1.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.1 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	62 s · transaction	0.99 NEAR	18.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.28 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 35.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
6	46d73ac6b755fff…7dd32	69 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	110 s after buying · transaction	-3.51 NEAR	none found
7	5b9d43abb215de7…4c173	72 s · transaction	24.80 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-4.45 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 34 of those launches pair bought within 27.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.7 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8	bem1ne.near	84 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-2.15 NEAR	pair bought within 20.4 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	579b7294974b54d…30203	104 s · transaction	7.00 NEAR	9.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.71 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 42.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.7 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.8 s of lambadaa.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	1122233413123.near	108 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	69 s after buying · transaction	-3.04 NEAR	pair bought within 42.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.3 s of 5b9d43abb215de7…4c173 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11	lambadaa.near	2.3 min · transaction	19.50 NEAR	16.2 min after buying · transaction	-5.83 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 34.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	sessssssssss.near	2.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	12 s after buying · transaction	-0.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 45.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of lambadaa.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.4 s of 1122233413123.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1	4.6 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.29 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of rootpepe.near

None known.