NRG nearly.trade

nrg.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nrg.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (charl1e-hot.tg) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2587 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -34.39 NEAR · insiders' net result: +21.74 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 51% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-06 15:48:17 UTC · block 218811474 · history: launch only
Transaction457XbhPHd56kn…caQ4q
Creatorplaynearia.near explorer
Poolnrg.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 15:47 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-10 15:47 UTC
Price now1.13x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.40x the peak
Outside buyers in profit28 of 120 · 23.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 18 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)2857637194
Buyers spent615.22 NEAR1,065.96 NEAR1,220.24 NEAR1,399.77 NEAR1,930.69 NEAR
Buyers net result+268.83 NEAR+236.39 NEAR+286.16 NEAR+71.62 NEAR-34.39 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+57.54 NEAR+56.47 NEAR+63.13 NEAR+36.47 NEAR+21.74 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.24x2.73x2.73x2.81x2.81x
Holders2948504737
Top 10 holders' share79.7%77.2%72.4%69.8%82.2%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 17.6% · 18 of 18 hold 8.7% · 8 of 18 hold 1.3% · 4 of 18 hold
Other early buyers 16.5% · 10 of 10 hold 13.3% · 9 of 12 hold 8.2% · 7 of 12 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)34.0% · 28 wallets22.0% · 30 wallets9.4% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)62.0%74.0%86.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)79.7%77.2%69.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder87.2% · 2 merged78.2% · 2 merged69.8% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 5 s · transaction 21.31 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction +13.27 NEAR
pair bought within 16.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 21 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +2.30 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 34.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.4 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 70 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.0 s of soundsite36.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 2695aba6ddf63b2….near 33 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 49.7 min after buying · transaction +34.71 NEAR
pair bought within 57.0 s of js1112s.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 soundsite36.near 37 s · transaction 39.60 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction +37.35 NEAR
pair bought within 16.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 55 s · transaction 86.44 NEAR 13.7 min after buying · transaction +28.83 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 34.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.6 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.0 s of js1112s.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 js1112s.near 90 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 43.8 min after buying · transaction +4.71 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches
pair bought within 27.0 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 35.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 106 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR not sold +0.66 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 11.4 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.6 s of js1112s.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 yeso.near 108 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR not sold +3.18 NEAR none found
9 alola.near 117 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 23.2 min after buying · transaction +0.55 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 27.0 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.4 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.1 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
10 rusty_spire.use….near 2.2 min · transaction 89.10 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +30.39 NEAR none found
11 badriansyahirwa….near 2.3 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR not sold +0.17 NEAR
pair bought within 22.1 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.4 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12 b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea 2.3 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +4.27 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches
pair bought within 0.7 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
13 b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 2.4 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +3.82 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
14 bf9c9b725df0744…ca524 2.4 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +4.38 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
15 57b75e37532eb09…faeea 2.4 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +3.31 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
16 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 2.4 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +4.41 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
17 94feda709c301ed…63090 2.4 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +4.44 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches
pair bought within 0.5 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
18 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f 2.4 min · transaction 15.50 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +4.05 NEAR
group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches
pair bought within 0.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.5 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 9 more pairs · all pairs
19 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 2.5 min · transaction 2.97 NEAR 5.2 min after buying · transaction +1.18 NEAR
pair bought within 33.9 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
20 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 2.8 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 10.3 min after buying · transaction +10.03 NEAR
pair bought within 51.0 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of playnearia.near

None known.