NSIG nearly.trade

nsig-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 65 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 1 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 47%.
Evidence: launch hoot.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch nsig-2.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 5.35 NEAR 87 min before the launch from shibelio.near, whose earlier launch hoot.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 9TcfjCDrescV3MhYT…1rjYK, launch hoot.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'nsig' was already used 0 min earlier by another creator (nsig.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch nsig.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2493 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -13.53 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 71% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-05 13:59:32 UTC · block 218653171 · history: launch only
Transaction	E5qqbJSzJ6gdF…wyovd
Creator	quietfield8770.near explorer
Pool	nsig-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-06 00:04 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	16	22	27	29	29
Buyers spent	289.29 NEAR	402.21 NEAR	470.31 NEAR	524.12 NEAR	524.12 NEAR
Buyers net result	-5.94 NEAR	+11.99 NEAR	+15.23 NEAR	+8.99 NEAR	-13.53 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.58x	1.58x	1.58x	1.58x	1.58x
Holders	5	14	17	13	7
Top 10 holders' share	100%	99.5%	98.5%	99.8%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	3.3% · 4 of 13 hold	7.8% · 6 of 15 hold	5.1% · 1 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	1.6% · 1 of 3 hold	5.9% · 5 of 7 hold	8.8% · 8 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	4.9% · 16 wallets	13.8% · 22 wallets	13.9% · 29 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	95.1%	86.2%	86.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	99.5%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	99.7% · 2 merged	99.8% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	31.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.79 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.2 s of js1112s.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.9 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	11 s · transaction	21.29 NEAR	17.1 min after buying · transaction	+5.20 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.0 s of js1112s.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	js1112s.near	28 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.23 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 17.0 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.2 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4	sillyward5300.near	30 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+14.69 NEAR	none found
5	kimpet77.near	41 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	16.8 min after buying · transaction	+1.25 NEAR	pair bought within 49.5 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.0 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	80289da0a50f047…d6989	50 s · transaction	100.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	-10.49 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 40.5 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.0 s of kimpet77.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	whoto.near	57 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.58 NEAR	none found
8	c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4	79 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.50 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	a61602ebdc9b583…012fc	80 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.80 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	fd5c09668cb779b…28411	80 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.08 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
11	e8a162641a55288…58210	81 s · transaction	7.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.21 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 9.4 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.7 s of js1112s.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.0 s of kimpet77.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6	81 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.44 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
13	9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607	82 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.69 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
14	7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27	83 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.94 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
15	alola.near	90 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 9.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.5 s of 80289da0a50f047…d6989 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
16	snipehood.near	4.5 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.80 NEAR	none found
17	kntlrdnx.near	5.6 min · transaction	0.30 NEAR	not sold	+0.05 NEAR	none found
18	memexxx.near	5.7 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	34.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.17 NEAR	none found
19	shibelio.near	7.5 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	not sold	+2.09 NEAR	none found
20	47dd6e35850af27…57fd4	13.8 min · transaction	37.62 NEAR	not sold	+3.59 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of quietfield8770.near

None known.