NSTAI nearly.trade

nstai.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 76.00% of it (1.520% per buy, 2.280% per sell; creator_bps 9500, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch nstai.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (8b0208a08942ea654ffc7999ed642d73eddbc71d8f9df658a8aea29f082c9952) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1642 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 49 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 102.5% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: nearlystocksai.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 08:50:12 UTC, 85.9 min after the launch: C2S7aDqk3uEnm…wUiUd.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -56.93 NEAR · insiders' net result: +8.06 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 49% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-01 07:24:18 UTC · block 218030166 · history: launch only
TransactionA8thmgGcTsF8x…M8jPY
Creatornearlystocksai.near explorer
Poolnstai.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy42.51 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 95.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:47 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-02 15:52 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-02 15:52 UTC
Price now0.90x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.49x the peak
Outside buyers in profit8 of 35 · 22.9%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side0.0% · 1 of 10 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 9 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%102.5%
Dev's first sell after launch————85.9 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)715273435
Buyers spent165.01 NEAR307.17 NEAR418.09 NEAR620.01 NEAR694.99 NEAR
Buyers net result+18.01 NEAR+0.92 NEAR+22.56 NEAR+39.82 NEAR-56.93 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%102.5%
Insiders' net result+14.14 NEAR+12.00 NEAR+20.12 NEAR+26.58 NEAR+8.06 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.28x1.47x1.47x1.83x1.83x
Holders81020257
Top 10 holders' share100%100%82.9%81.5%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 3.9% · holds 3.9% · holds 4.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — 5.4% · 10 of 10 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 12.5% · 7 of 7 hold 6.7% · 4 of 9 hold 2.8% · 3 of 9 hold
Other early buyers — 2.4% · 5 of 6 hold 9.3% · 6 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)12.5% · 7 wallets9.1% · 15 wallets17.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)83.6%87%78.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%81.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged81.5% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 47dd6e35850af27…57fd4 3.0 min · transaction 57.42 NEAR 8.5 min after buying · transaction +19.70 NEAR
pair bought within 50.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.3 s of neverekt.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 d0tz.near 3.0 min · transaction 29.70 NEAR 11.3 min after buying · transaction +3.36 NEAR
pair bought within 50.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 samidbangkit.near 3.6 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 38.5 min after buying · transaction +0.39 NEAR
pair bought within 16.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of neverekt.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 neverekt.near 3.6 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 11 s after buying · transaction +1.33 NEAR
pair bought within 14.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.3 s of samidbangkit.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.4 s of jorikkkbro.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
5 jorikkkbro.near 3.8 min · transaction 9.92 NEAR 4.6 min after buying · transaction +0.84 NEAR
pair bought within 10.4 s of neverekt.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
6 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 3.9 min · transaction 39.97 NEAR 8.1 min after buying · transaction +0.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 14.1 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.8 s of lambadaa.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.4 s of samidbangkit.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7 lambadaa.near 4.7 min · transaction 62.00 NEAR 41.6 min after buying · transaction +10.76 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches
pair bought within 52.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.3 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 579b7294974b54d…30203 5.2 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 7.8 min after buying · transaction -0.92 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 24.1 s of lambadaa.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.2 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 ebisidiaidi.near 5.3 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 2.0 min after buying · transaction -1.89 NEAR
pair bought within 9.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.3 s of lambadaa.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 firstnft_mint.near 7.3 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 3.8 min after buying · transaction -0.39 NEAR none found
11 marcoalex.near 8.0 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR 8.9 min after buying · transaction -0.08 NEAR none found
12 barrey.near 9.2 min · transaction 18.85 NEAR 8.0 min after buying · transaction -2.74 NEAR none found
13 b8185e452876272…dff87 10.3 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold +0.11 NEAR none found
14 cyber-pilot-636….near 11.0 min · transaction 35.46 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction -1.79 NEAR none found
15 iagipero.near 14.3 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR not sold +2.21 NEAR none found
16 b453e29d7b8ef85…bf0e2 17.4 min · transaction 7.92 NEAR not sold +2.24 NEAR
dev side received 10.00 NEAR from 8b0208a08942ea6…c9952 (the funding source of the dev's cluster), 89.6 min before its first buy · transaction
17 622781dd06784ec…fc14e 17.4 min · transaction 7.92 NEAR not sold +2.10 NEAR
dev side received 10.00 NEAR from 8b0208a08942ea6…c9952 (the funding source of the dev's cluster), 89.2 min before its first buy · transaction
18 8638c42b6b438a0…b7026 17.4 min · transaction 7.92 NEAR not sold +1.97 NEAR
dev side received 10.00 NEAR from 8b0208a08942ea6…c9952 (the funding source of the dev's cluster), 89.3 min before its first buy · transaction
19 a9321356353444b…23440 17.4 min · transaction 8.91 NEAR not sold +1.68 NEAR
dev side received 9.90 NEAR from 8b0208a08942ea6…c9952 (the funding source of the dev's cluster), 89.0 min before its first buy · transaction
20 a35a952f44f0d0c…cf3be 17.4 min · transaction 7.92 NEAR not sold +1.72 NEAR
dev side received 10.00 NEAR from 8b0208a08942ea6…c9952 (the funding source of the dev's cluster), 89.5 min before its first buy · transaction
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearlystocksai.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-01 09:18 UTC nearly.trade nstai-3.nearlytrade.near 25 Low retro rug history: launch only
2026-10-04 06:57 UTC nearly.trade ndoge-4.nearlytrade.near 55 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only